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Technology Stocks : IFMX - Investment Discussion -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Robert Graham who wrote (10630)	5/1/1998 1:59:00 PM
From: bob gauthier	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 14631

First Albany News Bottom Line (First Albany): "We think Informix's short-term issues have been handled well by an adept management team, particularly in the area of cost-cutting. This has resulted in positive EPS surprises in the last two quarters. However, we think long- and mid-term risks remain. Specifically, we think Informix is competing in an increasingly competitive market with the likes of Oracle (OTC: ORCL-$25 7/8-Neutral), IBM (NYSE: IBM-$115 7/8), Microsoft (OTC: MSFT-$90 1/8), NCR/Teradata, (NYSE: NCR- $36 11/16) Compaq/Tandem/DEC (NYSE: CPQ-$28 1/16), Sybase (OTC: SYBS-$8 1/2-Buy), etc. We think that by sticking with databases, Informix is in an increasingly commoditizing market, particularly with more and more database seats resulting as follow-on sales to support enterprise applications (translation: price pressure). Adding to Informix's hurdles, we believe, is the fact that if customers are also buying applications, hardware, and operating systems, then vendors like Oracle (sells databases and applications), IBM (sells databases and hardware), NCR/Teradata (sells databases and hardware), and Microsoft (sells databases, applications, and operating systems) will be able to withstand price pressure much more easily than Informix. We think Informix's strategy is to position itself as immune to "low-end price pressure" because it focuses on the high end; but in fact, we do not think Informix's databases are significantly more high end than IBM, Oracle, and soon Microsoft with the arrival of its SQL Server 7.0"

To: Robert Graham who wrote (10630)	5/2/1998 3:59:00 AM
From: Charles Hughes	Respond to of 14631

>>>Apparently the lack of confidence I saw by the speculator in the selloff just before the earnings announcement was a hint of what was to come.<<< Maybe they were just doing what I was - the classic 'buy on the rumor, sell on the news'? I'm looking for a little better price than Friday's close to get back in next week. What IFMX has done is to book two small profits in a row, which hopefully is enough to remove the dead-certain-loser image (I don't hear Larry Ellison sounding off lately about IFMX). That should comfort the customers, let them make some sales, along with the fact that their products are now good new technology, relative to the industry, anyway, and are working well. So they should survive for a while now. For the new leader, main objective accomplished. This is not to say they will quickly set the world on fire. The PE is high, and the DB business is mature. The one good thing here is they have good enough technology to eat some share from the market leaders, maybe. I think they have a good chance for a slow increase in profitability. Unless, of course, they decide to be a little more nervy and get into some other lines. Just one humble opinion. Cheers, Chaz