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Technology Stocks : Ascend Communications (ASND) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: djane who wrote (45857)5/1/1998 4:10:00 PM
From: Finder  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 61433
 
Very disappointing day for Ascend. I am still puzzled by the huge increase in short interest in the last reporting perid. I wonder what is causing the shorts to like this sotck so much, also performanace on days like today is trobuling.



To: djane who wrote (45857)5/1/1998 4:34:00 PM
From: djane  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 61433
 
To the more technically-minded thread members, I would be interested in an explanation of the following comment from the COMS presentation to H&Q. I haven't heard it mentioned before. djane

From a technical point of view, 3Com stated that the coming transition from a "Store-and-Forward" technology to a "direct move" technology will benefit 3Com more than other competitors. The elimination of s&f technology should help increase bandwidth on the Internet.



To: djane who wrote (45857)5/1/1998 4:46:00 PM
From: djane  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 61433
 
Briefing.com daily blurb on networkers. Check out the last comment

Brief: Another decent showing for the networkers with Ascend, Cisco, and Fore Systems gaining 1, 1 1/4, and 1 1/4 respectively... Xylan, for its part, added 23/32 after being reiterated BUY at Sutro & Co... Analyst there noted that IBM and Alcatel Alsthom will make significant orders for Xylan's OmniStack product... Cisco reported to be in heated battle with Lucent to win control over nascent Internet market known as "IP Technology" which joins phone calls with e-mail and other data on one network... At stake are annual sales of $65 bln by 2000.



To: djane who wrote (45857)5/1/1998 5:34:00 PM
From: djane  Respond to of 61433
 
LANTimes article. Q&A with UUNet, PSINet and GTE CEOs (Part I)

wcmh.com./lantimes/98/98apr/804b022a.html

Is one ISP the same as the next? To network managers
charged with picking through the myriad of pricing plans
and service options, the difference between ISPs often boils
down to cost and personal experience, with feature offerings
and service levels taking a back seat.

But choosing the right service provider has become more
important than ever. Businesses are growing increasingly
dependent on the IP services and connectivity expertise that
ISPs provide to deliver data both inside and outside the
corporation. At the same time, ISPs are extending their
reach, building global networks that will carry corporate
data with broad service guarantees and preparing for an
upcoming wave of voice services that could turn the market
for long-distance services upside down.

To help IS managers make their moves wisely, LAN Times
Senior Editor Brian Riggs sat down with UUNET
Technologies Inc. CEO John Sidgmore, PSINet CEO Bill
Schrader, and GTE Internetworking Services President Paul
Gudonis to discuss some of the most significant challenges
facing ISPs and the increasingly critical services they are
providing to business customers.

All three companies are ISP veterans. About 30 years ago,
BBN Corp., GTE Internetworking's name until last year,
developed the Internet's predecessor, ARPANET. And in
the late 1980s, UUNET and PSINet began offering some of
the first commercially available connections to the Internet.

As access services became commodities, these ISPs had to
reconsider how they would provide services to corporate
customers who were demanding more secure, more reliable
Internet services. The key lay in controlling the infrastructure
over which ISPs provide services. BBN and UUNET
gained this control by merging with cash- and
infrastructure-rich telephone companies GTE Corp. and
WorldCom Inc., respectively. PSINet has chosen a
go-it-alone strategy, opting to stay independently owned and
operated, purchasing fiber capacity from interexchange
provider IXC Corp., and filing for status as a competitive
local exchange carrier (CLEC).

All three are moving quickly into an international playing
field. UUNET, through the planned merger of WorldCom
and MCI Communications Corp., has the potential of being
a subsidiary of the company that owns the majority of the
Internet's infrastructure. Late last year GTE Internetworking
started offering outsourced VPN connections internationally
and, through its acquisition of data center operator Genuity
Inc., expanded its Web server hosting services
internationally. PSINet has expanded its services
internationally by setting up subsidiaries in Germany, Japan,
Canada, the United Kingdom, and elsewhere. And last
month, PSINet purchased the rights to transatlantic fiber that
will connect its networks in the United States and Europe.

ISPs are now beginning to dabble with telephony, the latest
wave of IP services. IP fax services are already available,
and GTE Internetworking, PSINet, and UUNET are
preparing to launch voice offerings over their international IP
networks.

As ISPs play out their global games of strategy and
conquest, corporate network managers will have to decide
which players to partner with, as well as determine where
they fit into the game.

Representatives of NETCOM declined to be interviewed
for this article.

LAN Times: As an ISP, what worries you most and keeps
you up at night?

Bill Schrader: I have two primary concerns. The first is the
WorldCom [Inc.]-MCI [Communications Corp.] merger. I
believe that's a good thing and they should go ahead with it.
With that said, I think they could exert some unfair power
over the rest of the marketplace because of their [combined]
economic power. There is a risk that they would do
something extraordinarily strange like change the pricing
model for all interconnections between networks, the
resulting large network, and the rest of the ISPs' networks.

My second concern is government interests [in regulating the
Internet and ISPs], not just in the United States but
everywhere. That includes encryption constraints by the
U.S. government and other countries. Congress wants to
"help" the Internet, but we don't need their help. We don't
need any government involvement or government regulation.
We don't want them to fund the development of the Internet
anymore. There are so many billions of dollars being
invested right now that we don't need any more government
funding.

John Sidgmore: Our primary issue right now, and probably
for at least the last year and a half to two years, is scaling the
network. Our technology base and our network are growing
at rates no other industry had ever seen. We've been
experiencing roughly a thousand percent per year of growth.
That means that every year the network is ten times bigger
than it was the year before. Three years from now, our
network gets a thousand times the size of our current
network. Our engineers say that if you're not scared about
that, you don't understand what you're doing.

When we recognized this thousand percent per year growth
rate, we realized that we would never be able to continue to
scale as a relatively small independent ISP. So we sold the
company to a telephone company in order to have better
control over the underlying infrastructure. Even though
UUNET was the largest of the ISPs, it still was hard for us
to see how we would be able to raise hundreds of millions of
dollars in capital every year. So we sold to MFS and they
eventually sold to WorldCom so that we could get closer to
the fiber infrastructure, which is the primary cost in our
business. When we attached ourselves to this telephone
company, we convinced the telephone company that the
Internet was going to be the most important piece in the
entire communications industry and that's been pretty much
verified by now. Given that the Internet was going to have
this thousand percent per year demand and voice networks
have something like eight percent per year growth, it
wouldn't take very long before the Internet became the
dominant piece of the puzzle. Therefore, we had to build
scale in a major way and build our fiber networks in such a
way that they could be best used by Internet networks. We
have been on a tear to build out capacity as fast as we can in
the United States in the local loop, and on all business
routes, under the oceans, and in every major city in Europe.
We're using capital [from WorldCom] as quickly as we
possibly can. Of course, that capital gets allocated to
UUNET as UUNET's demand grows.

Paul Gudonis: We need to make sure that we don't have
various governmental roadblocks toward the adoption of
Internet commerce by our customers. Whether those are
policies around encryption or security, content, E-commerce
laws, or taxation. The extent that any of these barriers
become roadblocks to the growth of global Internet
commerce would tax my customers and therefore impact the
industry.

LT: Describe your corporate customers' biggest concerns
and how you are addressing them.

Gudonis: The Internet has gone from being an engineer's
tool and science project to being mission critical to
businesses today. In discussions with CIOs three years ago,
no one was saying to us, "I'm going to put my
mission-critical business processes on the Internet." Today
CIOs are demanding high performance and high reliability
because they are putting mission-critical processes on the
Net. That's the change. The market is moving toward
robust, network-centric computing and reliable access to
intranets and servers for transaction processing. Five years
ago [the Internet] was not designed to support
mission-critical transactions. So we are putting in network
facilities, we are using RSVP [the Resource Reservation
Protocol] and other Quality of Service [QoS] technologies.
And we are setting up hosting centers around the world. We
already have a dozen data centers for server operations
around the world.

Schrader: Our corporate customers are primarily
concerned about [Internet service] reliability. They want us
to have bandwidth, off-net connectivity, and improved
services. That's why we're buying fiber in the United States
and bringing it into the United Kingdom. That's why we have
a 100 percent guarantee for our Web hosting service.
There's no myth to [Internet unreliability]. There's a real
reliability issue and you'd be surprised at the sources of the
problems. It can be as simple as a customer having trouble
trying to download Web pages from PSINet because the
[interconnection between PSINet and a telco] is not being
managed properly. [The connection] could not be managed
properly by any telephone company in between [the end
user and the ISP], but there's no way for the end user to
know this.

When you move from an eighty-year-old [telephone] system
that has no innovation at all to the Internet--the most exciting
innovative network in world--you've got to expect the
results of innovation, which is new applications that get
carried over the old structure which don't quite run perfectly
all the time. Computers are demanding and extremely
flexible in how they do things, compared to a telephone
instrument that either gives you a dial tone or doesn't.

Sidgmore: Corporate customers' concerns really haven't
changed a lot [over the years]. [Internet] quality and security
are really the two fundamental issues at large corporations.

Large corporations traditionally had private networks,
whereas now they use [various kinds of] public networks.
Even if they used public networks, they weren't as diverse as
they are today. They certainly didn't transfer [data] over
dozens of networks like the Internet does. I think as people
grew up in that environment, they became used to quality,
security, and a certain cost level. Then the Internet came
along with this explosion of IP technology and a huge change
occurred in the dimension of the cost structure, which a lot
of people gravitated toward naturally. But, it also came with
a big difference in the quality level and in security.

As we have seen those concerns shaped over time, I think
we see the corporate environment as one where customers
really want to be able to buy a broad spectrum of services.
They want to look through their application sets and decide,
application by application, how much security is really
required, how much quality is really required, and how much
they're willing to spend.

So, we want to be in a position of offering a seamless,
continuum of services where you've got low cost, lower
quality services on one side and high cost, highest quality on
the other. At the end of the day, that's where we're all going
to wind up, maybe two years from now. It depends on the
application. If you were in the federal banking community
and you were going to wire around the world hundreds of
millions of dollars on electronic instructions, you probably
would be very worried about the security. If you were selling
CDs over the Internet, you'd probably worry slightly less.



To: djane who wrote (45857)5/1/1998 5:36:00 PM
From: djane  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 61433
 
LANTimes article. Q&A with UUNet, PSINet and GTE CEOs (Part II)

wcmh.com./lantimes/98/98apr/804b022a.html

LT: I've seen estimates that Internet traffic may increase
tenfold in the next year. How will ISPs keep up?

Sidgmore: We've got to build more facilities, lay more fiber
infrastructure, and deploy more switches and routers. We're
going to continue to build out that superstructure, and the
way to build that out is to pour more capital into it. [And]
QoS is going to be more important to large corporations as
they put more important applications on the Internet. Over
the last few years, Internet growth has been from adding
new subscribers and doing fairly simple applications. We
haven't seen the big explosion that I think is still to come
from putting the basic corporate applications [on the
Internet]. Those are just starting to migrate to the Internet.
As that happens, I think you're going to see more and more
QoS guarantees and other applications and products from
ISPs to address all of the concerns.

Gudonis: We are building a new Global Network
Infrastructure (GNI) starting in the United States with a
high-speed fiber network. We are building this new
15,000-mile backbone network in the United States. We
are building a lot of backbone capacity to stay ahead of the
capacity crunch. We acquired dark fiber from Qwest
[Communications Corp.], we bought Nortel [Northern
Telecommunications Inc.] optical electronics, and we are
deploying a network that starts out at OC-192 (2.5Gbps).
That gives us plenty of capacity. Then, with dense wave
division multiplexing, we are going to add even more
capacity.

We are also deploying more Web hosting operation centers
around the world, distributing hosting centers close to
customer concentrations. If you [as a corporate Web
hosting customer] are doing 7x24 global commerce, you
may have customers in Asia and customers in Europe.
Rather than having to deal with traffic bottlenecks [on
overseas Internet connections], we will deploy mirrored sites
for you in data centers in Europe and Asia. So you have a
very short path for your customers to get to your information
and you are going to get higher performance.

Schrader: We buy fiber and instead of adding T-3s
[45Mbps connections], we add OC-48s [622Mbps
connections]. That's a fiftyfold increase, and because of the
efficiencies of the packets, we get a lot more than fifty times
[the bandwidth]. ISPs could probably get two hundred times
more delivery effectiveness by building gigaPOPs, massive
points of presence with large numbers of modems and large
numbers of interconnection equipment.

What you want to think about here is each two or three
years, you see a new innovation that goes on the Internet.
PSINet is blending the computer expertise and the telephony
expertise into one business. So, every two to three years,
you will see a major enhancement in the routing capability
and switching capability, or the use of fiber. Each time you
will see this leapfrog effect of one time, three times, ten
times, a hundred times. Then everything else has to balance
and improve and you get this instability and then it becomes
more stable. Then it gets totally stable and you get this new
enhancement and it gets unstable again. That's part of life
and that's what the Internet is about. That's why the
telephony industry cannot deal with this directly. It must
become an ISP. Have the kind of expertise that PSINet has.
Have the kind of facilities that we have. Well they already
have it--they're telephone companies. What we're doing is
adding telephone facilities to the computer expertise.

LT: What are the trade-offs of being independently
operated as opposed to telco-owned?

Sidgmore: The primary pro [of being an ISP owned by a
telco] is that we've got access to the fiber infrastructure and
that means a lot. It lets us control [network and service]
quality. For example, if you have ownership of the circuitry
all the way through, from local access through the Internet
and out to other cities, you can control the quality better if
you own all of those facilities. You can also package these
services together in more clever ways to create more
innovative products because you can manipulate the facilities
some. The other advantage, of course, is that most
telephone companies have more money than most ISPs, and
money is important to scaling the network.

The downside isn't so much the telephone company; it's
being part of a large company. There is the risk of losing
your entrepreneurial spirit. That's something we worry about
a lot. But we would argue that WorldCom is the world's
largest small company. WorldCom wasn't even around ten
years ago, so it's really a new company. We think we have a
good shot at remaining agile and entrepreneurial because of
that.

If you're independent, you're not going to have the same
kind of access to capital. That isn't so bad when you're a
small ISP-- when you're [worth] ten, fifteen, or twenty
billion dollars. You can always get enough capital to get to
the next generation by doing another secondary offering or
raising venture capital. But when larger independent ISPs
need to scale their network, you're talking about major
amounts of capital. The advantage is you don't get distracted
by other businesses, other markets, or regulatory issues or
things like that. You're instead, very focused on a singular
item. I'm sure that's what Schrader would say. That's what
he tells me every time I talk to him.

Schrader: The pro of being independent is that we control
our destiny. Being independent means that we have freedom
of action. We can go after any market that makes profit for
our shareholders. There's nobody who says, "Schrader,
you've got to stop selling because you're cannibalizing your
parent's revenue." What if we were owned by AT&T and,
after working hard for two years, their revenues drop by 30
percent because we did a good job [selling IP telephony
services] and their fax business is gone because we put it on
the Internet at one one-hundredth the price?

What is the con [of being independent]? Living with the
analysts who wonder, randomly it seems, why we don't sell
the company. There's no reason to sell the company. I think
we're going to be wildly profitable in the future. Why should
we? There's no reason to. That's the con.

Gudonis: [When BBN was independent] we had more
management flexibility because we were a smaller company.
We had less coordination with other operating units because
we had no other operating units to deal with. But we also
had a lack of network facilities, insufficient distribution, and a
smaller R&D budget. [At that time] some of our customers
expressed concern about our staying power and did not
trust more critical, ever larger global IP networking services
to us. They bought a T-1 [1.5Mbps circuit] from us but also
wanted a global virtual private network and managed
content distribution. They were concerned whether we could
step up to that. Now that we are owned by GTE, they trust
that we will be there in the future.

In getting married to a telco, we sought three things:
network, distribution, and capital. GTE has provided all that
and more. On the same day that GTE announced the
acquisition of BBN, they also announced a billion dollar
investment in a new national fiber network. As to
distribution, we got the brand-equity of GTE as a much
larger brand name than BBN had. GTE brought a lot of
voice-telephony skill to mix with our IP and data skill, so
now we are unleashing a new set of IP and PSTN [public
switched telephone network] services--like IP fax, IP
telephony, unified messaging services--that we could not
have done if we were independent.

LT: How will businesses first start using IP telephony
services?

Sidgmore: There are a lot of application-based services that
IP telephony will bring to the market. For example, you're
on somebody's Web site looking at product information and
now you want to talk to a product representative. It would
be very convenient if you could just hit a button and talk to
them, even if the quality was slightly less [than what you
would get on the PSTN]. Another example: Fax traffic is a
huge percentage of what is currently counted as voice traffic.
It comprises something like 50 percent of all international
traffic. Fax [over the Internet] is very easy to do. There are
lots of applications like that, such as voice mail and
messaging and so forth.

Internet voice has become much better, and I think it will be
good enough for a number of applications. But the reality is
that circuit-switched networks are better equipped today to
handle perfect quality interactive voice. If that's what you
want, that will probably be that way for some period of time.

Schrader: There won't be a single traditional telephone
company around in ten years. They will all look like ISPs.
Eighty percent of all telephone calls in five years will be
made over IP and the LAN manager is going to be
responsible for delivery of telephone services. The LAN and
telephony infrastructure teams are going to merge. The
legacy fax and voice and VPN environments are going to be
on the Internet. They're going to be on extranets. They're
going to be on VPNs that are all IP.

Gudonis: What you will see is reduction in long-distance
calling costs. But it should be fairly invisible to corporate
customers because they will buy service from us, and if we
deliver it across our Internet backbone as IP telephony, that
will be invisible to corporate customers. You won't have the
VocalTec [Corp.] method of booting up a PC to have an
online phone call. We are going to add additional enhanced
services such as unified messaging, which is E-mail, voice
mail, and a fax mail box all in one--resident in the network.
You don't have that sort of thing today, but with IP
telephony you will be able to do it.

LT: What hurdles still need to be overcome to make IP
telephony appealing to the vast majority of corporations?

Sidgmore: Last year IP voice was basically people sitting
around shouting into their computers. It was a very poor
situation from a quality standpoint. Today it's much better in
most cases and, yes, occasionally there will be differences in
voice quality. I do not believe circuit-switched voice
networks are going to go away. I think they work just fine
for the majority of core voice traffic and probably will for a
long period of time. I do think quality and the simplicity
needs to improve.

Gudonis: We are one of the few ISPs that has a strong
engineering history with QoS technologies. You will see us
introduce those services that support, not only IP telephony,
but also videoconferencing and robust file-transfer services
over the Internet. But we need scaleable IP-to-PSTN
gateways, and we are working with Cisco in this regard.

It's easier for providers to deliver on-Net [IP voice]
services, where all traffic stays on my backbone or [for
example] the MCI backbone. But crossing that boundary,
the inter-ISP transfer of QoS packets, is something that the
industry has not worked on yet. There have been technical
discussions at the IETF, but there are no business
agreements yet.

Schrader: I don't see any technical limitations at all. Maybe
bandwidth. But we own the bandwidth.

The only place we're going to deliver high-quality voice and
fax and other value-added services, which are extremely
sensitive to latency or quality, is through ISPs who are
directly buying service from us. If you're thinking of using
multiple ISPs linked side-by-side and wondering how
they're going to get QoS across these various networks, it
ain't gonna happen. We're never going to deal with it.

By the way, I don't think simply reducing your [voice
service] costs by a factor of two is enough. You know,
executives talking to executives do not care about how much
phone calls cost. And if your company has ten thousand or a
hundred thousand employees across multiple continents,
then you already have a VPN in place and voice is probably
already costing you only about ten cents [per minute]. So it's
companies between five hundred employees and the Fortune
500. That's where we're going to be playing for multiple
offices doing interconnections for PBXes.