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Technology Stocks : Concurrent Computer (CCUR) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Christiaan McDonald who wrote (3573)	5/2/1998 1:03:00 AM
From: The Ox	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 21143

I also don't see the point to speculating VOD revenue for the fourth quarter. Without a clear view of the SFA relationship and it's potential, I find it impossible to believe one can come up with a valid figure at this stage of the game. There are many directions CCUR is taking with respect to VOD and all it's incarnations. Corporate intranet, residential cable, hospitality, etc....... But hey Randy, good luck, have fun and enjoy playing the #s game. Maybe you can hit the nail on the head? Michael

To: Christiaan McDonald who wrote (3573)	5/2/1998 8:04:00 AM
From: Nimbus	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 21143

You sound ... like a man in denial. I like CCUR, but we have to be realistic about the upside. Most troublesome to me is CCUR's lack of experience in real city cable trials. DIVA had a "solid" system in the lab in 1996, but it still has taken 18 months of trials in 3 cities to get everything working 24*7 (extremely hard but extremely critical). CCUR still has this ahead of them I think before significant orders will be placed for their server. My guess is that the "news" next week, if any, is that both SEAC and CCUR will be involved in a SFA aligned trials this year in one or more cities. Be aware that SGI, HP, DEC, and nCUBE have all done this already and none have greatly benefited as no true roll-out has ever occurred as a result, but they still have the recipe. Finger's still crossed. I've started to take Corky's "promises" with a few more grains of salt.

To: Christiaan McDonald who wrote (3573)	5/2/1998 3:28:00 PM
From: Randolph Gwirtzman	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 21143

Ken, I'm not sure what you mean by "wet," but I would greatly appreciate elaboration (I'm serious, since I trust your knowledge of this company). I'm only trying to help other serious investors on this thread to get a sense of CCUR's prospects. I have been long CCUR for two years, and I've never been so excited about the company's prospects as I am now. Nevertheless, I feel that it is crucial to build a reasonable earnings model (even if it is based on a few assumptions, which I have tried to fix from CCUR's operating history). Without a _realistic_ sense of potential earnings, there is no way to predict _realistic_ stock price values. For what it's worth, after reviewing DH's notes of the conference call (which I have not yet had a time to listen to on replay), it sounds like 4Q will see only small to moderate VOD revenues -- assuming CCUR isn't overly aggressive in its revenue recognition policy, which it doesn't sound like given Dunlevy's disposition. From 1Q 98 we should see revenues start to take off. Therefore, I'm predicting that we'll see only 0.03 to 0.04 in 4Q (bring the year to 0.11 to 0.12), and well see something like 0.20 to 0.23 next year. Yes Ken, these estimates are based upon my model. Nevertheless, unless my assumptions are _way_ out of line (maybe CCUR will get some tax benefit I'm not aware of, or they will have abnormally high margins on the VOD), I think these are realistic. We are currently at about a 23 P/E multiple of trailing 4 quarter earnings. Applying this multiple to next year's earnings gives a predicted price of about 4 5/8 to 5 1/4. Of course, this doesn't take into account the "hype factor" which could substantially increase the multiple. Although my model may be "wet," it is not far off the analyst earnings predictions of 0.16 (1997) and 0.25 (1998). These predictions were made prior to the CCUR 3/31 earnings announcement, at a time when it looked like CCUR would see significant VOD revenues in the current 4Q (which was predicted by Corky in an earlier press release, but doesn't look realistic now). I am staying long CCUR, because I think that it is ready to leverage its financial strength with what sound to be significant VOD prospects. I repeat, I am excited about this company. It will grow, and the only question in my mind is what its legitimate earnings prospects are. If anyone can help me to "dry" out my model, I would greatly appreciate it, since I believe it would benefit every serious investor on this thread. Randy.