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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Engel who wrote (32325)	5/2/1998 2:31:00 AM
From: Joey Smith	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1572039

Paul, good point. re:But IDT will have IBM making their chips...at the same time AMD has IBM making the K6. The big winner here is IBM Microelectronics. An AMD investor should be concerned that their relationship with IBM is not exclusive, nor specialized. When a problem occurs on the line or AMD wants higher priority with chip delivery, don't expect IBM to be bending over backwards. This is also the reason why IBM will not make an equity investment in AMD. IBM will use K6 as a testbed for learning about their .25m, .18m process, copper technology, and they still get revenue from providing this service. Why invest in a company that will continue to rack up losses?? joey joey

To: Paul Engel who wrote (32325)	5/2/1998 2:30:00 PM
From: Kevin K. Spurway	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1572039

Paul, you're quite a spin doctor. If IDT becomes a serious competitor in the x86 market (as unlikely as that may be), then the company with the most to lose is the company which currently dominates that market--INTEL. The fact that Cyrix and IDT have adopted AMD's standard is a first in the entire history of the x86 processor. Intel is no longer the innovator! And are you really surprised that HP is no longer selling K5-based boxes? Maybe you don't know as much about the industry as we thought. Kevin

To: Paul Engel who wrote (32325)	5/3/1998 1:02:00 AM
From: Robert Walter	Respond to of 1572039

Paul, It is true that once IDT has sufficient capacity it will truly be able to compete with Intel, NSM, and AMD. However I would not count on IBM being a major source of Winchips and I would not count on it from internal sources either any time soon. IBM's will be producing chips on 0.35 micron technology. Its capacity to produce chips will be limited due to manufacturing commitments to many other major companies. IBM may help IDT capture one tier one vendor at best according to my sources which would put their total capacity (IDT+IBM's)in units at around 400k/Q. IDT will not have the transition to 0.25 technology completed for the WinChip until 1999. So they will be seriously behind the speed curve of all the other manufactures. Here are a few quotes from Lehman Brothers to help you make up your own mind. (IMHO you already realize all of this you just like getting a rise out of the AMD faithful and It doesn't bother me in the least.) Here are the quotes. IDTI did just over $1 mil. in x86s in the December quarter. The biggest change in sales, of course, is in Centaur. IDTI has had good success in the upgrade market where it has proven itself 100% compatible. However, our projection of $8.7 mil.(120K units at $70) may be 10-15% too high; IDTI, however, also sees the chance of landing a tier 1 customer as soon as 3Q98. If so, that customer could quickly require 350K units per quarter (more than triple IDTI's FY4Q98 run rate). IDTI has taped out the IBM version of Winchip 2 (which will give the necessary second source capacity to accommodate top tier customers). 75% of FY4Q98 production was at 200 MHz or better; FY1Q99 should see 90% at 200+ MHz, FY2Q99 90% at 225+ MHz, FY3Q99 90% at 240+ MHz, and FY4Q99 90% may be at 300 MHz as the 0.25 micron transition move into full swing. As far as Albert goes he has been very busy according to the last few communications that I have had with him and he has been traveling out of town. So I would expect you to hear from him on SI again soon. To the best of my knowledge he has not been banned from SI. Regarding the private message board its working great. Remember when SI was in its infancy and you didn't have to sort through 100 garbage post to find out what was going on with what ever company you were following. Well it like that on the private message board. Happy Trading Robert