To: William Hunt who wrote (2541 ) 5/4/1998 6:43:00 AM From: Ridi J Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 21876
Barron's says: "a lot of investors are wondering which stocks are the most dangerous right now. With that query in mind, we rang up the folks at Laszlo Birinyi's shop in Greenwich, Connecticut, to get a list of the 50 stocks in the Standard & Poor's 500 Index that looked most expensive by one important measure: The relationship between their current price and the average price they had fetched over the past 200 trading days. " This measure is a rudimentary, inaccurate measure in many tech stocks and those who are undergoing dramatic changes on a daily basis. 200 days ago, Lucent was not the same company it is today in many substantial ways. This measure works well if your company makes tractors, always has made tractors and always will make tractors and only tractors, but through acquisition and innovation, Lucent has been growing and blowing past technical analysis-based earnings estimates every single quarter of it's short existence. The mention of Laslo Birinyi as a source of S&P information implies someone has a friend in Connecticut that they wanted to throw a "national exposure" bone, as this information would normally be gotten from S&P. I'd be much more impressed and better informed if journalists would list how many previous quarters' estimates the "experts" have gotten right (or missed entirely). Lucent could tank tomorrow, or it could continue the same or better growth Cisco has enjoyed over the last four years, a spectacular ten-fold increase, with a respectable p/e using stock pooling instead of cash for future acquisitions. "That's just my opinion...I could be wrong." Dennis Miller