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To: David Israel-Rosen who wrote (669)5/2/1998 2:55:00 PM
From: David Israel-Rosen  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 1491
 
A more detailed reply:

I would like to further explain my price target :
Please note that my analysis EXCLUDES HU211 !!!

1. There are 10,000 optamologists in USA
2. 500 of the above do 95% of all Catarct surgeries
3. BOL Storz UNIT sells/details to these guys. They have an established relationship with these guys which they had for over 15 years. Thus this is not a NEW RELATIONSHIP Selling !!!
4. Based on press release the product is Better... It reduces complications and thus office visits with the above 500 MD's.
5. many of these guys make $2-3,000,000 per year (NO TYPO). They would like to operate and play golf. Thus they WILL use the better products which they can now obtain from STORZ. They buy staff on the GOLF course (no Joke !!!)
6. Realistic market share is 40-50%+++ so they can make much more money than Gary Davis estimated. I assume about $25,000,000 in 2000
7. $25,000,000 / 42,000,000 = 60 cents a share
8. PE of 20 to 30 x gives us $12 to $18 a share.

Now add to that HU211 and JV with a major partner (preliminary results of BLIND (!!!) trials are due in late summer) and we have a momentum play in the making.

9. this can be a 5-10x gain in the next 18 months. I also expect a faster sales ramp up...in 1998
10. Enjoy

david



To: David Israel-Rosen who wrote (669)5/2/1998 9:59:00 PM
From: David W  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 1491
 
David,
It seems to me that $.50 EPS estimated in 2000 discounted back to 5/98 with no EPS and risk in between is worth no more than $4 - $5. Would you agree? When do you expect the market to begin reacting?

DW