I see the DVD causing an upgrade cycle just as CDROM did. Near the end is the good stuff about up and coming DVD titles.
What is the Future of DVD?
By Pamela C. Arthur
Westport Media Resources
and
Richard A. Mizer
NUKO Information Systems
Finally introduced in 1997 amid much skepticism, DVD has appeared to exceed all expectations, with more than 250 titles available at Christmas, and players coming out with prices below $500. But what is the future for DVD? Here, Pamela Arthur and Richard Mizer provide a closer look at the next steps in the evolution of Digital Versatile Disc (DVD) technology and its applications.
So far, Digital Versatile Disk (DVD) technology has been limited mostly to linear motion pictures, replacing VHS tapes with better sound and picture quality, but without taking advantage of the full capabilities of the medium, especially interactivity and multi-tracking. But a new wave of non-theatrical applications for DVD should encompass 90 percent of the total market by the year 2000, with some of the first to appear including high-performance games, music videos, and educational content. A third wave of applications will bring: DVD magazines, real estate sales brochures, educational courseware, corporate training, museum tours, corporate annual reports, government record archiving, military battle simulations, and many more.
Predictions and Concerns about DVD
DVD technology is likely to replace many of the existing storage technologies, especially removable media such as Iomega Jaz, and probably the existing magnetic hard drives common in most computers. In large-volume applications, DVD will likely provide faster access and longer shelf life than digital video tape: in robotic libraries, used in massive storage-and-playback installations, for example, at cable headends. And of course, the relationship between DVD and the World Wide Web will provide some very exotic combinations. Last but certainly not least, don't forget the advertisers, and the opportunity to include commercial spots on DVD.
DVD is not without its controversies and issues. The most recent headlines focused on the DIVX solution to the DVD rental business, getting support from those studios who were reluctant to endorse DVD, and confusing consumers who perhaps postponed a Christmas player purchase. And the DVD-RAM market has been offered a variety of options from different manufacturers, driven by the size of the market opportunity and the need to achieve the same storage capacity as DVD-ROM (4.7 GB). DVD-Audio is still an unsettled standard; while the audio chosen for movies was Dolby Digital, there are other options with much support, including DTS, SDDS, and MPEG Surround. And for DVD-Audio Discs, which are intended to replace the ever-popular CD, the choices are between higher quality and more quantity. Lastly, the relationship between DVD and Advanced Television is unclear. Certainly DVD discs could support higher bandwidth formats, but is the customer expected to have multiple boxes plugged into their TV set, one for cable, one for DVD, and still another for Internet access-or will one integrated device emerge anytime soon?
Market Analysis
The 1997 Christmas Season validated most of the market projections for DVD, with the number of titles created approaching 500, and as many as 250 on store shelves for holiday shoppers to choose from. However, while linear-play Hollywood movies will continue to increase at about the same rate, 1998 will see rapid growth in DVD for new applications.
The high-end market segment requires professional equipment for DVD Video authoring with a wide range of options, including integrated pre-processing, multipass variable bitrate encoding, and specification-compliant authoring and emulation-and all this currently falls in the $250,000 price range for a complete system. The problem is: most second-tier post-production facilities have only $100,000-150,000 to spend on a complete system. And the emerging low-end market segment, which includes corporations, game developers, and other content originators, will require desktop-based systems for DVD-ROM development with only limited control over encoder variables and a sub-$50,000 pricetag.
Specific DVD markets are showing strong purchase intentions within the 6-12 month timeframe, with post-production, CD plant, and multimedia as the leading segments. Corporations, while demonstrating a surprisingly large volume of interest, are lagging behind in purchase timeframe. Across all market segments, the market values DVD compliance as the single most important feature in DVD authoring systems. Post-production, CD plants, multimedia, and corporate segments all rely heavily on distributors, VARs, and system integrators as their preferred computer equipment channels.
Existing DVD Titles
Of the 500 or more DVD titles that have been produced, the majority have been feature films, primarily major motion pictures from Warner Brothers, Sony Pictures Entertainment, Polygram, and others. These DVD titles feature Dolby Digital audio, wide-screen and pan-and-scan video, multiple language tracks, subtitles and closed captioning, and additional materials, although not as much effort has been expended on the optional features provided by the DVD specifications, such as multiple camera angles. Also, many B-titles have been released, but they do not emphasize video or audio quality, and they often have very primitive interactive menus.
Standards and Interfaces
The SMPTE Engineering Committee M.21 has developed a model that depicts the various stages in the authoring process. While this model is preliminary and for planning purposes only, it has generated much controversy even in the choice of words for the processes involved. Called "authoring" by some and "premastering" by others, the choice of either term can depend on the particular production field from which a producer originally came. The committee has begun to address the issue of standard interfaces, specifically including disk image-to-replicator, encode-to-premastering, and scenario template standards.
Premastering Optimization
In order for the premastering to be profitable, process management is as important as technological advancements. If too much time is spent on rework and hand-offs between authoring steps, it will be impossible to amortize the capital investment because of stranded equipment hours. And as long as authoring equipment takes a "Rocket Scientist" to operate, very expensive labor costs will add up to budget overruns.
DVD Capacity
Pit Depth Modulation (PDM) uses a new encoding technology to take advantage of the depth of the pits, not just the lengths or distances between pits, to store information. This allows a significant increase in storage space (3x) and also offers the added advantage of higher data rates. One of the advantages of PDM disc replication is that DVD lines can be used with minor modification and playback systems require only circuitry modifications.
Domain Wall Displacement Detection (DWDD) is a new kind of magnetic domain expansion and playback technology that could quadruple the current storage capacity of DVD. With DWDD technology, recording marks as short as 0.075 micrometer have been read, even when using an optical system with lower resolution than those used in current DVD systems.
Advanced Features
Competition should lead to an improved look for new titles, emphasizing higher video and audio quality through better source material, preprocessing, higher bitrates and sampling frequencies, better encoding algorithms, and creative use of existing capabilities in the specifications to produce animated menus, scrolling production notes, more intricate graphics, subpicture color palettes, and more.
Enhanced intuitive navigation and interactivity, multitrack branching (not just multiple camera angles or audio tracks), and World Wide Web connectivity are just a few of the tools that will be used to produce some of the more advanced applications that are described below. We can also expect to see 3D-DVD and HD-DVD in the very near future.
Projected Applications
Below are listed some applications by industry with examples that take advantages of the many features of DVD: security, small size, high-density storage capacity, and long shelf life:
Entertainment. Music videos; karaoke; next generation games; broadway plays; symphonies; opera; and motion picture and television archival materials.
Education. K-12 education; adult education; encyclopedias; museum tours; and books-on-DVD.
Medical/Dental. Medical and dental record archives; personalized records.
Corporate. Corporate reports; new product introductions; corporate training; shopping catalogs; real estate listings.
Government/Military. Military applications, including battle simulation and training; government records, including census and patents; criminal records and court proceedings; DMV; titles and deeds.
Recent Examples
Pioneer has introduced a first-in-the-industry DVD Car Navigation System for the domestic market. Two multicar computers, equipped with 8-inch, wide-screen, color LCD display monitors, 32-bit RISC chips, and DVD-ROM players, assure fast data reading speed from DVD-ROM software packed with 7.5 times more data compared to CD-ROMs.
Jack Nicklaus, a top-rated golf simulation game from Accolade, includes never-before available exclusive video footage, and new, higher resolution and detailed cinematics.
Microsoft has announced the introduction of its Encarta DVD-ROM Reference Suite 98. The suite brings together three of the company's best-selling reference titles: Encarta 98 Encyclopedia Deluxe Edition, Encarta Virtual Globe 1998 Edition, and the Bookshelf 98 reference library, on one DVD-ROM disc. There are 33 new videos on subjects as diverse as the first human steps on the moon and robots on a production line. Thirty-three new 360-degree views, including a tour inside the Louvre with a stop at the Mona Lisa, and links to thousands of Web sites offering updates.
Warren Miller's Ski World-where you can play the video, plus have the interactivity of going online, visit six hundred ski locations, get ski conditions, and play a ski game.
NB Digital Solutions has been awarded a GSA contract to develop a prototype training course published as a DVD-ROM for the Naval School of Health Sciences entitled, Management of Chemical Warfare Injuries.
Next-Generation Applications
Applications that will take advantage of the futuristic capabilities of DVD interactivity, Web access, video/audio quality, and increased capacity include:
WebSurfer. This next generation browser comes preloaded with all your favorites so that download time on the network is minimized (along with your phone bill). It will also include an intuitive graphic user interface, and include the many plug-ins you normally need to play back streaming audio and video, along with plenty of additional features yet to be revealed.
DVDMagazine. Imagine full-motion video sports events of the week. In addition, you could play along with your favorite teams, or your fantasy team, over the Web with other subscribers.
Rocket Science Games. The kids are really waiting for this one, with video quality better than what you see on TV, and the many hours of gaming that can be included on a single disc. DVD-ROM will clearly replace CD-ROM for this application. Many more characters can be included, as well as many more outcomes of the confrontations, and even the most serious gamer will have trouble working out all the options.
CityWalk. Complete information for the city you're planning to visit, including history, a video walking tour, shopping guide, hotels, and other travel information. This application will be especially advantageous with the emerging portable DVD players.
HomeTeam Advantage. The ultimate coaching tool, it will include scouting reports with action footage of the opposing team or your own players, and will allow the coaches the real-time play simulation capability to analyze what they should call next. Another application would be to send complete previews of high school or college players for coaches to review in the draft and recruiting process.
HealthNet2000. Imagine the ability to take your medical records with you, when you move or simply change doctors, including x-rays, recent checkups, a complete physical, including all the test records, that you keep with you so that they don't have to send them, and perhaps have them lost.
Two other points should be made before leaving this glimpse of the future: first, we will definitely see advertising on these DVD discs to help keep the price down, since obviously NIKE would like to make sure their full-motion ad is in your DVDMagazine, and, second, the emergence of DVD-disc cameras, and DVD-video recorders, will enable the personalization of DVDs that will encourage the creativity that comes up with many more applications than have been described here.
Impacts on VHS, Laser Disk, CD-ROM
The VHS format suffers from two major problems which will assure its decline over the next several years: first, is the fact that VHS is an analog product in a world that is rapidly becoming digital, and, second, it is very difficult for anyone producing VHS tape or finished blank VHS cassettes to make ends meet financially because of falling prices.
The DVD disc is not as resistant to abuse as the laser disc; small scratches and fingerprints result in noise distortion, and there have been a lot of customer complaints from rentals. While laser discs deliver high-quality video data to the user, they require the addition of an expensive analog video overlay card to a standard personal computer.
The welcome news is that DVD will not make the CD-ROMs of the past 10 years obsolete-just the drives. The unwelcome news is that DVD-ROM is facing its first round of in-the-field problems and they are reminiscent of those early days of CD-ROM, including: "rate-card" pricing does not exist, adherence to standards is just over the horizon, the market and installed base is negligible, and operating systems are having trouble recognizing the new medium.
Impacts on JAZ, Hard Drives, Tape Libraries
For applications from PCs to file servers, no other packaged media exists, or is even in development, to rival DVD. Iomega ZIP and JAZ drives revolutionized PC storage, but now face formidable competitors with similar technology. The hard disk medium has shown remarkable resilience as a storage device while facing an onslaught of competing technologies including tape, MO, and various other optical storage systems, not to mention the emergence of near-field recording, but it is not as transportable as other technologies.
The Walt Disney Company had been archiving their massive libraries on both analog and digital tape. The catastrophic failure mode of digital tape meant that if it wasn't cloned you could lose everything. With analog tape, as oxide begins to fall off you lose high-frequency response or get some dropouts, but you are less likely to open the vault and have unplayable tape. When they make their next iteration of archiving, they plan to go optical.
Future Impacts
The soon-to-be-implemented high-definition era of television will affect every area of media reproduction, especially DVD. As we move through 1998, with consumers offered more choices, between advanced television, satellite tv, video-on-demand, Web surfing, DVD, and more, you still have to be able to connect all these to the TV set. Someone needs to integrate all these services into simple consumer electronics that don't take a "Rocket Scientist" to connect to the one device they are already happy with-their television.
Pamela Arthur is president and CEO of Westport Media Resources and Richard A. Mizer is vice president of Entertainment Industry Markets.
Greg
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