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Technology Stocks : Apple Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: soup who wrote (12514)	5/2/1998 9:39:00 PM
From: Alomex	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 213177

Management screwups made it possible for investors to buy world class technology, a rabidly loyal customer base, and internationally visible brand name for little more than book value. Before we get too exited here, lets have a look at the Chart. There was an eleven month window in which buying Apple would have been profitable. I'd say that even in hindsight (there we go again) it would still be an error to have bought Apple before Amelio was removed. That means the window for going long on Apple and making a buck was only five months long. AAPL's stellar stock performance vis-a-vis the rest of the S&P 500 this year gives us some sense of the change in thinking. When and if AAPL achieves the kind of trailing/projected earnings, it will be universally upgraded/valued comparably to other CPU-software vendors (a hell of a lot higher than it is today.) I'd disagree. I still think that in the long term Apple the-personal-computer/operating-system company, is on the way out. That means they will not, or rather, should not be afforded a P/E ratio of Dell proportions. Now, we know the market goes hysterical on occasion (Netscape at $80 anyone?), so I wouldn't be surprised if AAPL sees high multiples, but it would be undeserved. What has changed, IMHO, is that Apple will die a graceful death, making a buck for shareholders in the process. (I should also annotate that companies do die but rarely disappear. Amiga Technologies is still out there, property of Gateway, same for WordStar. I'm sure I'll be able to buy an Apple something twenty years from now). At that point, like the risk-averse little coward I am (terrified of anything that evens smells* like an earnings momentum story) I will have sold off most of my holdings.* If it makes you feel better, a couple of years back I beat a field of dozens of investors while purposely following a "coward" strategy (I was trying to make the point that you can be a cautious, yet successful investor).