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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lucretius who wrote (21155)	5/2/1998 6:17:00 PM
From: John Carpenter	Respond to of 95453

More often than not, I find that the investment advice of a cab driver is far superior to that of a Wall Street analyst.

To: Lucretius who wrote (21155)	5/2/1998 8:00:00 PM
From: Gator II	Respond to of 95453

I enjoy your posts and think you are right-on re: the overall market, just PREMATURE. (Hey, I always play the "Don't Pass" line and load up the back line in Vegas waiting for the inevitable "7" and am looking for the worst case scenario, too!) However, I would like to offer this counterpoint: If I recall correctly, in the mid-1970's, which WAS the _last great cycle_, The Drillers, as a group, rose sharply until around the end of 1976, then a correction hit the overall market in 1977. Yes, the drillers paused, but they, as well as virtually all other energy stocks held up better than most, i.e., they paused, THEN they continued their upward path to set new highs in the early 1980's. The bottom line is, I am suggesting that NO ONE knows exactly when the pause (note that I didn't say crash) of the overall market will occur, but after the unpleasantness is over, the drillers, IMHO, will resume their climb just as they did in the last GREAT CYCLE. Again, I DO agree with you that the overall market is on the verge of a correction but the BEAR isn't upon us yet. The best protection is to avoid long calls, buy the common, take some insurance out with some puts, and write some covered calls, both in and out of the money. Just my humble opinion, GATOR II

To: Lucretius who wrote (21155)	5/2/1998 11:49:00 PM
From: mph	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Here's another point of view on the market: cnnfn.com mph

To: Lucretius who wrote (21155)	5/3/1998 2:45:00 AM
From: Jack Be Quick	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

LT, re:<<if a cab driver is discussing the merits of the offshore drillers, this bull is near death. >> This is a crock of elitist taurus crap. Regardless of whether the market might collapse, for whatever reasons, this is not 1929. If not actually invested in GLM, your cab driver in 1998 is as likely as not to have money invested in money market and stock mutual funds, and retirement money invested in an IRA, a 401K, or conceivably in some other company or union pension plan. He or she sees the same articles and hears the same debates as you about the future of social security (15% of his or her pay for starts, might have their attention, don't you think?) and about how much better off we'd all be if this money was "invested" in the stock market and making 30% gains every year (as opposed to the 2% he's lucky to be getting from the bank--and his bank wants to get into the stock market too!). He or she probably comes home from work, logs onto the internet, dons some clever cyber identity, say Sylvio Bruno, turns on a 24 hr. a day financial news station to listen to in the background, and taurus craps with his SI thread pals about whatever bug he's got up his nose that day -- and finds loads and loads of stock market "information" to chat about with Cramer. In other words, a person with many, if not all, of the same information resources as you or anyone else here. Btw, if I recall correctly, you might want to go back and review your own posts on the subject of P_Engr, a poster on the AOL/MF Oil & Gas thread, and your observations on the difficulties of translating any degree of knowledge about the oilpatch into any gurulike prescience about the general market. As I recall, you explained to us very well and at considerable length how difficult it is to be a market guru. Good reading a second time, I'm sure. Regards, John