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To: Lucretius who wrote (11112)	5/2/1998 5:13:00 PM
From: Richard Mazzarella	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116762

Lu, you made such a great case for the market to crash. With all that gloom, maybe I should by calls on the S&P? Seems like a great buy signal. <VBG>

To: Lucretius who wrote (11112)	5/2/1998 5:25:00 PM
From: Crimson Ghost	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116762

Lucretius: Your concise listing of the many reasons why this mania will end in disaster before long is a classic. One other factor setting us up for the mother of all bears is the facile assumption by many professionals that they will be able to ride the mania up to the top and get out just before it all collapses. The market will find a way to take the vast majority of such players down for the count. My guess is that liquidity will dry up almost immediately when the turn comes.

To: Lucretius who wrote (11112)	5/2/1998 6:34:00 PM
From: Bobby Yellin	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116762

think you might have left out how much of the world still hasn't fixed their year2000 problems..(most programmers are scared) add panic besides current diversion of money now by corporations and governments to start fixing it..some bigshot analyst might come out anyday with saying the impact on earnings.. fantastic list.. also very tired so may have missed it..but another severe correction in the Asian markets which would probably affect our markets.. ps..did you check about Homestake in barrons this week..the accumulation by a German who had accumulated so much he had to report it 11119 If anyone can add to this, please do. And I ain't talkin about just a little 'ole correction. (ggg) Bearish Sell signals: 1. adv/decline line has diverged form major ave 2. TRAN and UTIL have diverged form SPX and INDU 3. NASCRAP appears to be putting in a head and shoulders 4. Internet stocks continue to explode everyday (these trash stocks are a sign of rampant specualtion. MM can't find real value in the mkt so they are throwing money at hopes and dreams) 5. Bull/Bear ratio still firmly in camp of Bull 6. Gold has turned around and unptrend is intact(notice it was down on Fri because of a false rumor that Belgium would be selling gold. Belgium came out after thee close and said "Nope, untrue." Compare the XAU and TYX, they look VERY similar. XAU is leading. 7. TYX appears to be heading up. Don't be fooled by Thurs & Fri's slight pullback below 6%, notice we closed up near the open on Fri back near the high of the day... a strong reversal signal. 8. $ continues to get pounded by Mark as EURO approaches. Japs are defending Yen and will continue to pump it up. Money will flow out of US as dollar declines. 9. 60% of US households are invested in the stock mkt..... the most in HISTORY. 10. Mutual fund cash levels are at a 10 yr low marketgauge.com 11. stock mkt is everywhere. I have noticed over the past yr more and more mutual fund, and brokerage commercials on mainstream TV, radio and print. There was even an article in Rolling Stone about the "roaring mkt" 12. earnings yr-over-yr are declining 13. the leaders are breaking down.... BKX (looks ot be putting in a head and shoulders) NASCRAP is topping off. KO and G have both broken down 14. Insider selling has increased to a record pace over the past 3 months. G insiders have been dumping stock right and left. 15. Signs of inflation: wage protests detailed in newspaper recently as workers complain about CEO's stock options and their low wages, real estate mkt is on fire. building has picked up markedly everywhere, I think you all know about the increase in oil prices that is coming, nat gas prices are up, food prices will be increasing cause of El Nino, gen asset inflation of stock mkt and real estate. IMO, Fed would have acted long ago but was afraid of collapsing the mkt, now they can't do anything as the mkt runs out of control or they will be blamed for the ensuing disaster. I think their just hoping it will correct itself and not implode, hence the article in WS urinal 16. X-chge seats peaked about 2 mnths ago and have been trending down. 17. oils are always the last stocks to move in an aging Bull (we're seeing that now) 18. no need to discuss P/E levels at all-time highs and div yields at all-time lows 19. Now for the touchy-feely stuff: a. bull on the cover of newsweek b. bull on the cover of Barrons this weekend c. AFC won the superbowl d. hemlines came down this yr e. CNBC's ratings have exploded over the past 6 months. f. CNBC is now being shown in Times Square on the Sony big screen g. man friends of mine (against my advise) have taken out home equity loans over the past 3 months to put it in the mkt. h. Bill clinton commented on Thurs that "his opponents can't compete w/ his ideas, afterall look what we have... roaring economy and a roaring stock market." i Elaine Garzarelli cam out Fri and is extremely bullish (contrary indicator) and made arguments for a mkt rise that I've read about economists making about why the mkt could go to even more lofty levels before the 1929 crash j. Bull mkt tops are made at the height of euphoria when all anyone sees is up and good things for the future (kinda where we are, notice that every analyst is looking ofr around 10,000 this yr, and then higher later. NOBODY sees any problems. Valuation is rationalized away like I used to do when I was a kid explaining to my dad why I spray-painted a wall in the house.... "it needed color, dad. I didn't mean to. If you look up you can't see it."

To: Lucretius who wrote (11112)	5/2/1998 8:51:00 PM
From: Enigma	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116762

LT - what is TYX?

To: Lucretius who wrote (11112)	5/3/1998 9:11:00 AM
From: Ron Schier	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116762

Still a lot of $$$$$ incoming into the market, from the 60% of US households already in market, & rest of world. Also, a lot of $$$ sitting on sidelines & in bonds waiting to come in, on a correction. Unless the US economy slows a lot (earnings down a lot) or interest rates go up 1/2% to 1% ( Fed. has not moved !!!), goldielocks stays. Galbraith says Europe stock market boom, a bubble; invest in USA. Too much fear now !! Everyone is warning, therefore it will not happen soon !!