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Biotech / Medical : PFE (Pfizer) How high will it go? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: BigKNY3 who wrote (1960)	5/2/1998 8:26:00 PM
From: Anthony Wong	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9523

BigKNY3, real neat site! Thanks. <eom>

To: BigKNY3 who wrote (1960)	5/2/1998 11:45:00 PM
From: BigKNY3	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9523

Highlights from the Big Pharma Report posted on AOL's Motley Fool PFE Board. -One of the busiest weeks in PFE history. -PFE made the cover of three national magazines! -The most comprehensive Big Pharma Report ever. -Three analysts to watch out for. Have PFun! BigKNY3 _________________________________________________________ Big Pharma Report- 5/02/98 Week Big Pharma (+0.9%) was flat matching the Dow (+0.9%) , S&P (+1.8%) and ahead of the NAStie (-0.7%). The urge to merge Pharmas were this week's winners: GLX (+8.2%), PNU (+5.8%), and SBH (+5.0%). Last week's winners gave back some of the gains; LLY (-5.3%), PFE (-4.8%), and SGP (-1.4%). Only WLA reached its all-time high one week before its 3-1 split. APRIL 1998 Big Pharma gained 2.1% for the month as compared to the Dow (+3.0%), S&P (+0.9%), and the NASTIE (+1.8%). Da Cup(+14.2%) edged out PFE (+14.2%) for the monthly honors, while WLA (+11.2%) was close behind. MRK (-6.0%) was the Big Pharma laggard based on more Zocor concerns. YTD 1998 Big Pharma (+20.7%) is ahead of the Dow (+15.7%), the S&P (+15.5%), and the NASTie (+19.3%). It's 50/50. WLA (+51.4%) has edged ahead of PFE (+51.0%). The rest of the field is clearly behind with Da Cup (-4.8%) back in the red. Hasta Evista again! Big Pharma News You Can Use -In response to the Lipitor surge, MRK on Friday announced a major Zocor discount program for hospitals. -LLY came under pressure as Merrill Lynch cut its rating to accumulate from buy citing lower than expected sales of Evista. -WLA announced Lipitor first quarter sales of $378 million. Total sales of Lipitor and Aricept were $456 million. Analyst Upgrades/Downgrades -CS First Boston downgraded PFE on Thursday am (112 5/8) to hold from buy. (Interpretation:sell) Reason: " high expectations for Viagra reflected in share price. I think the valuation is fair." -Salomon Smith Barney raised its 1999 PFE earnings and target price for PFE to $155. -Aros Securities reiterated its buy with a 12 month target price of $130. -Nationsbank Montgomery Securities maintained its buy with a 12-18 month target price of $132. General thoughts about analysts' reports, downgrades and upgrades. Don't believe them!!!! Most of the analysts are influenced by their previous positions, current positions and portfolio ownerships of their brokerage houses. Here are three analysts who will most likely promote negative reports on PFE during the next three months: Wole Fayemi (Cruttenden Roth): Prior to joining CR, Mr. Fayemi was the pharmaceutical analyst for Genesis Securities , an underwriter for Vivus, manufacturer of MUSE. During his stay at Genesis, Mr. Fayemi was consistent in issuing strong buys for Vivus. Since October, 1997, VVUS has lost 75% of its value. Charles Olsziewski (Paine Webber): Paine Webber is the underwriter for Vivus. Similar to Wole Fayemi, Mr.Olsziweski has strongly recommended VVUS. Alex Zisson (Hambrecht & Quist): H & R own 4.1% of VVUS ED News You Can Use -Viagra is the Christie Brinkley of pharmaceutical products this week....featured on the covers of : Business Week US News & World Report Time Magazine -IMS has reported that 51% of Viagra Rxs were being paid in part by insurers as compared to 76% for all Rx drugs. -Viagra Media Watch Media coverage of Viagra is basically out of control. There are currently 29 basic media themes ranked below according to their current exposure. The major risks to PFE are overblown stories concerning "Use in Healthy Men", "Abuse Potential and Overprescribing", and "Danger of Side Effects". The most important theme that is being missed by the media is the impact of Viagra in breaking the "stigma of impotence". Current Rank Exposure ..... Media Theme 1 High.... Overwhelming Demand 2 High.... HMO/Insurance Reimbursement 3 High.... Usage in Women 4 Medium.... Use in Healthy Men 5 Medium..... Impact on PFE Stock 6 Medium..... Rx and Sales Levels 7 Medium..... Abuse Potential & Overprescribing 8 Medium..... Editorial Columns 9 Medium..... Humorous 10 Medium ......Sexual Revolution & Politics & relationships 11 Medium ......Discovery 12 Low...... Danger of Side Effects & Adverse Reactions 13 Low...... Internet Prescribing 14 Low...... Pharmacy Pricing 15 Low.......International 16 Low.......Stigma of Impotence 17 Low...... Phony Viagras 18 Low...... Vatican Review 19 Low...... Competitive ED Products 20 Low.......Editorial Cartoons 21 Low...... Men & Midlife 22 Low...... Q& A 23 Low.......Smuggling Into Foreign Countries 24 Low.......Political 25 Low...... Attempts to Illegally Obtain Viagra 26 Low...... Combinations of ED Products 27 Low...... Pharmacology of Viagra 28 Low...... Use as a Preventative to ED 29 Low...... Security Concerns

To: BigKNY3 who wrote (1960)	5/3/1998 12:43:00 PM
From: BigKNY3	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9523

Highlights from this week's Peabody Report posted on AOL's Motley Fool PFEr Board: ______________________________ Peabody Model Trend Prediction: PFE reached another Peabody Valley last week and is headed higher to a new Peabody Peak. Future News That Will Effect PFE: -Viagra third week new Rxs report (IMS Report due on Monday) -Valuation/ PE concerns -Any credible reports of unexpected Viagra adverse reactions -Big Pharma momentum -General market corrections Peabody Portfolio: +120.8% Report Highlights: -New Pending Peabody Valley of 109.38 reached on 4/30/98 -Second Portfolio purchase made within a two week period. The Peabody Report is intended to foster conversation on the PFEr Board. Invest only after conducting your own research. Have PFun! BigKNY3 __________________________________________________________ The Peabody Report: 5/03/98 Peabody Peak/Valley Status Click here for the Peabody Daily Log of PFE prices since 12/31/97. Peabody Model Trend Prediction Based on historical PFE patterns, the Peabody Model predicts the following trend direction: PFE reached another Peabody Valley last week and is headed higher to a new Peabody Peak. Commentary The media frenzy surrounding Viagra is unprecedented in the history of Big Pharma. The volatility associated with this frenzy will continue as the world follows the Viagra story. Risks and rewards will also increase as the battle between momentum players and concerned valuation analysts continue. I believe the short-term key will be reports of Viagra's specification. As Joseph Riccardo, senior managing director of Bear Stearns said last week : "Prescriptions make sales...make earnings...make stock price." After a huge 12.6% in the prior week, PFE gave back 4.8% as a new pending Peabody Valley was reached on Thursday, April 30th. As noted in previous Peabody Reports, major breaking market and Big Pharma news could impact PFE including; quarterly earnings reports, Viagra New Rxs and sales reports, Viagra in the media, unexpected Viagra adverse reactions, market corrections, instability in Asia, and Big Pharma partnerships and merger mania. Since it is based primarily on historical trends and Mr. Peabody "gut feels", the Peabody Model should always be placed in context of the market environments and anticipated news. As evidenced by the mythical Peabody Portfolio (see section below), the Peabody Model works particularly well for PFE investors with a "buy, hold, and buy more at the Valley" investing strategy. New or pfuture PFErs could consider investing 50% immediately and investing the remainder at near Peabody Valleys Peabody Short-term PForecasts Peabody Short-Term PForecast (4/26/98): PFE: 118.25, DJ: 9,065: The eyes of the investment world are on PFE while the ears of the world are on news about Viagra. Expect another gap up on Monday. Then, anything can happen. The difference between the Top 3 and The Bottom 10 in Big Pharma indicates Big Pharma may be correcting. New correlations in Da Model indicate PFE, WLA and SGP may be taking their own path. Gut Feel: A new Peabody Peak is guaranteed this week. However, as PFE moves higher, the volatility and risks increase. Expect 125 to be broken! ___________________________ Evaluation of Peabody PForecast: PFE never recovered from a weak Monday market. For you TA fans a nice base was held @110. Never listen to guarantees! Thumbs down! Peabody PForecast Record (59 weeks): 37-22 (63%) _________________________________________________________ Peabody Short-Term PForecast (5/03/98): PFE: 112.63, DJ: 9,147: PFE should logically follow Monday's report of Viagra's New Rx's in its third week. This number should be huge and PFE should fly again. One growing caution: at this point the media frenzy is becoming a negative factor. The FDA will not stand for any misue of Rx drugs being promoted by the media. Any FDA action could result in a 5-10% PFE correction. That said; PFE is headed higher to 115+ and beyond. Long-term I have never been more bullish!! Peabody Portfolio (+120.8%) PFE @ 112.63 The Peabody Portfolio has more than doubled in less than two years. In April, 1998, the Peabody Portfolio added 400 new PFE shares to the Porfolio. The mythical Peabody Portfolio consists of Mr. Peabody's 15 aggressive PFE purchase recommendations listed on the PFEr Board since August 14, 1996 . A total of 200 shares (100 shares pre-split) were purchased at each recommendation. To date, the Portfolio has purchased 3,000 PFE shares at an average price of $51.02 (only 3.7% off the subsequent next PFE Valleys). ________________________________________ # PFE Shares Purchased: 3,000 Average Price of Purchases: $51.02 Total Costs: $153,063 Total Market Value: $337,890 Total Potential Profit: $184,827 Future Actions That Will Effect PFE ED news in the media Throughout 1998 Asia, Iraq and Clinton news Throughout 1998 Viagra Rx and sales trends Throughout 1998 AUA Meeting-presentation of Viagra data May 30-June 4,1998 FDA review of Zeldox June, 1998 European approval of Viagra September, 1998 Launch of Zeldox July, 1998