To: Pete who wrote (1870 ) 5/2/1998 7:01:00 PM From: Peter Mui Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 8242
> It's great to have such an optimistic > target of 40,000 by the end of the year, > but given that 2 years have been invested > in developing this, you should have a > reasonable number of subscribers already. > Please tell us HOW MANY, or give a good > explanation of why this information is not > being made available. It is all well and good to be a skeptical investor but you cannot reasonably expect any start-up enterprise to have a good sized or even modest subscriber base (read: the masses) signed up before the service is even available. Not many businesses, savvy ones at least, will sign up with a service that they have not seen or utilized yet. For that matter, I doubt many retail consumers would blindly buy something before they have either read something about it, researched it or have tried it out first. A rough, physical world simile may be an entrepreneur that plans to open up a deli in midtown Manhattan. Granted, there is enough foot traffic to keep the hundreds of delicatessens in Manhattan up and running but I don't expect the deli owner to know how many potential customers will patronize his business before it is open. And that is regardless of how many flyers he has passed out in the weeks and months past touting his grand opening. My point is, no business knows if they will succeed or fail when they first start up. It is all up to the business acumen of the individuals involved, their ability to see market conditions and react to them, and the receptiveness of the target market. Luck also plays a part, but that is an intangible that really can't be measured... If I were to estimate the potential first year subscriber base of PNLK, I would place the number between 15,000 and 25,000 customers. This is however just an opinion based on what I think their initial exposure and word of mouth will generate in actual "sales". I consider this a very respectable number for a first year internet business. I feel that 40,000 subscribers is very optimistic but perhaps attainable if everything clicks. I think the important thing to consider is that membership fees are not the only source of income. I believe partnerships, advertising fees and trade brokering have the potential of adding more to the bottom line than membership fees. In any case, I look forward to the next post from Mr. Zagoren. Regards, Peter