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Technology Stocks : 3Com Corporation (COMS) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: P.M.Freedman who wrote (15386)	5/4/1998 10:56:00 AM
From: joe	Respond to of 45548

P.M >> Up and down depending on the next earnings. Miss it down to $18 or beat it up to $50. Actually 3Com is struggling on matching the estimates ($0.21). << case 1) Coms beats estimates or equals them. Then, price like you said will go up to ~$50. case 2) Coms doesn't beat estimates, BUT SHOWS SIGNS THAT MODEM SALES ARE STARTING TO MOVE. Market will definitely reward COMS depending on circumstances. case 3) Coms doesn't beat estimates, and it looks like modem sales are slow to take off. COMS just stays at same price. COMS misery is FULLY PRICED IN. There's a chance it would drop to the 20's, but that would be if the company were screwing up in other areas. (Which they're not!) Or possible, if the entire tech sector slows, affecting all COMS sales, then COMS would drop to 20's - maybe. I'll be a DEFINITE BUYER at those prices. A couple of points: 1) I don't think market can gauge exactly how the modem sales will pick up. Eric B. said that it won't happen over night, but IT WILL HAPPEN. So, just like last quarter, the earnings estimate is sort of meaningless. Anotherwards, a few pennies one way or the other won't be scrutinized by analysts as they would be for CSCO. 2) >> Up and down depending on the next earnings. Miss it down to $18 or beat it up to $50. Actually 3Com is struggling on matching the estimates ($0.21)<< Remember, that's what was said last quarter. COMS missed by a mile, and stock still went up for a few weeks. 3) IMO, after last quarter and watching COMS interact with analysts, they don't seem to stress quidance with analysts very strongly. I think they try not to get caught up in the Street's moment by moment expectations, and stick to they're knitting - which is a long term solid approach to growing the business. They're out to stay in competition with CISCO over the long haul. Any thoughts by people with reasons to back up their opinions? Joe