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To: Big Dog who wrote (21164)	5/2/1998 9:34:00 PM
From: Carmine Cammarosano	Respond to of 95453

Stick to a strict valuation discipline, this way you are buying low and selling high and no one will talk you into buying high...

To: Big Dog who wrote (21164)	5/2/1998 9:35:00 PM
From: 007	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

BD, with all due respect for your valuable contributions to this thread, I think that is a dangerous viewpoint. The conditions are definitely different today in that the market has come home to main street, but one thing has not changed and that's the business cycle. Sooner or later there will be an economic downturn and the market will respond negatively. There's no way to avoid that and no way to change the way human psychology responds to threats. Fear can spread like a wildfire because "In the age of instant everything, the power of the herd is monumental." 007 PS Obviously, I agree with Luc but I would hesitate in attempting to call the top before it's made unless there's some dramatic fundamental or technical development. The idea is to change the portfolio immediately once you realize the party's over, but I wouldn't want to risk leaving the greatest bull market too soon. Besides, investing in this sector should buy us extra time because the OSX will probably peak some time after the market does.

To: Big Dog who wrote (21164)	5/4/1998 6:00:00 AM
From: IQBAL LATIF	Respond to of 95453

Great post-- Big dog-- I just posted this on Idea thread I thought it may interest you. Where are we heading? Is this bull running on Pfizer's Viagras? I was busy over the weekend in London and hence rarely came on to the site however these are my targets long term and short term. I will select SOX-- my target is 355 380 401 440-- I will go for 355 as interim three months target and 440 by June 1999. Nikkei-- my next year June 1999 target is 22500--23000. HSI my target is 16500-. Sterling / $ I think we will see 1.52 within six months from 1.67.. Matif -- 101- I will short Matif at 104. Bund 104- I will short Bund at 107 80 level. My target for DOW is 11000 by July 1999. ( I will write a sequel to "Dow a steal at 8000 not for shorts but for longs, soon. People seem to be worried about duration of this bull market but like bad economic policies result in depression like that of 30's, why should good economic policies not result in long period of sustained growth. Look at the real interest rates. US is one of the countries where real interest rates are amongst the higher ranges. ( You compute real rates by deducting inflation from nominal rates). US real rates are higher than UK where nominal rates are much higher at 7.6%. So actually we don't have in US an easy monetary policy rather it is restrictive. Imagine nice to see that an actually restrictive policy is resulting in high growth and low unemployment. Last year I had written about this break down of unemployment -growth relationship as it stands now I will re-paraphrase my observation saying that it is not new 'paradigm of economy' it is inability of understanding higher growth with higher real rates. The problem is that a nation which has expensed 'capital expenditure' in P&L account is still finding difficulty in grasping that may be those hundreds of billions have made US more efficient and productive. Any number like ECI which shows lower inflation turns markets odds in favour of moving higher since long money (bond traders) detects (the smartest of all moneys in the market) that higher real rates will keep a check on inflation. So you have Fed still keeping real rates higher but crying wolf that economy is overheating- keeping $ higher resulting in dropping exports which may slow the growth by full percentage point. Last but not least occasional leak to a gullible WSJ reporter on asset inflation and slant of Fed to raise rates. In my opinion we will not see this bull being slaughtered overnight as far as real rates are so high. Fed is very much through its invisible hand not known to a discerning eye managing this momentous run very much hands on. Impact of Euro needs another article in favour of 990- 1155 range. PS One of my dear friend Mohan in my last `8000 Steal post' had added in a tongue in cheek remark `for shorts'. It took me a month to get over the two words. ggg Are you listening Mohan? In the interim I would see a lot of volatility and hence will request that ample preparation should be made. I am sure that $ goes higher since ECI if I was in AG shoes I would like to slow down this sizzling economy by keeping exports lower and hence higher $. I also see that Yen will weaken further to 150 area why because of deregulation in Japan I will see atleast 10% of Japanese savings over next few years being parked in prime assets that amount could be anywhere near 60-90 billion $'s. Not much if you see the big market cap of 10 trillion $'s but enough to make some prime assets more dearer. Prime assets are difficult to find and globally trade at premiums hence one needs to be careful not to get out of its core holdings. With jolts of the market.. For immediate future if 1130 is taken out today I will see SPM as high as 1155- if 1130 is broken we go back to 1005 and retest 1085 within this week. I am strongly biased in favour of 1155 instead of 1085. 70/30 is my tilt. SOX I would assume will consolidate in immediate term and try to make a new assault to 330. NWX and DDX I will trade them on long side to 355 and 240- To hedge my very long exposure I will throw in some money to buy 1050's SPM for June, just in case scenario the moment 1118 is taken out on SPM not on two closing basis. Like AOL example, I will avoid to stand in front of a stock making news highs. One will find that lot of people have made this mistake but by the time these short squeezes turn around the staying power of shorts gives up. The reason I will not stand in front of a index making news highs is that I just don't want to look at my core and second guess it. If one look's at my profile one will find stocks like Dell Msft INTC as integral part of my core holdings-- I just own them should add TXN ASND now-so for me `Idea ` is to trade around my core although each trade on its own should be able to stand test of profits. I trade around my core-and will encourage people to do so. Other thing is look out for new opportunities in Europe. I am looking at few stocks and indexes where I would think some opportunities are arising to buy some puts. I will post some addresses and Tel numbers where European exposure is possible. I never have cared during last few years if my core stocks have made stratospheric heights or titanic depths-- I add when I see opportunity like Kurlack's semis downgrade. Long live Kurlack, with him around who needs shorts, he does it for the health of the market. Indexes is what I play to protect my profits. I am hopeful the previous post leads to our friends able to see if my banal instruments, inadequate they may appear, may add some fine tuning to various models being used to predict future course of the market. I hope we all continue with the spirit to help each other out so that opportunities may become widely available and easily understandable.

To: Big Dog who wrote (21164)	5/4/1998 8:32:00 AM
From: j g cordes	Respond to of 95453

"My feeling is we have embarked on a new era in financial matters. In this new order... In ten years we may say...remember the old days in 1998 when we thought a PE ratio of 100 was high?....stranger things have happened" BD.. <g> thanks for raising the bar on optimism and speculation! While individual stocks will run extreme pe's in their formative and growth stages its seems implausible to me that money and opportunity will drive averages anywhere near that... but just in case I'll leave a few calls in the market. The US market while having politics, demographics, invention and military power underpinning it, is not immune to its own valuations both relative and historical. Markets seek profits, they're not fair or benign one way entities,they can turn to devour themselves when internal opportunities to divest, short and exit outweigh external opportunities. Jim