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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Joey Two-Cents who wrote (8206)	5/2/1998 10:58:00 PM
From: Ulrich Santo	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 18691

Short Interest Charts for NASDAQ stocks. If someone is interested in the short interest of nasdaq stocks. I have the short interest from 1/97 - 4/98 in my database. swarm.glamus.de Search for public short interest data for ASE and NYSE stocks. Ulrich

To: Joey Two-Cents who wrote (8206)	5/3/1998 8:00:00 AM
From: Alexander Pavlov	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18691

<< Pancho just when I thought AMZN & the other Internet's were headed on their way down they received a new life. The safest way to play these stocks are to buy puts. And even then I would only buy puts on those stocks that have LEAPS. In addition to the banks I think Dell LEAP puts 1/00 may prove profitable. Also EK with its Fuji competition. As for the internets I think AOL is the only one with LEAPS and I'd be afraid to purchase them. However, I really do hope AMZN starts issuing LEAPS those I would buy in a minute. >> Joey, While I agree that AMZN LEAPS would look much more attractive than simple puts, I do not think in the same way about DELL. Since price of AMZN and other dot-com-stocks pumped mainly by hype, DELL's price mainly reflects general market overvaluation. And while it could take considerable number of quarters to flush out the hype from AMZN stock price (remember, AMZN investors already agreed with no profits until Y2K), DELL's price is to be corrected along with general market. And there is not much hype in DELL to send its price further down. Considering upside potential, well, some people call for Internet revolution. I believe in existence of the Internet and I could admit existence of this revolution. I could admit that Internet will change to some extent the way some commodities being sold. But I do not believe Internet could expand markets for these commodities. And I do not believe in possibility to increase significantly someone's market share through usage of copper wires and CICSO routers, just because everyone can do the same. This is why I would never invest in AMZN, and this is why I didn't make a fortune on it :-( . As to DELL, it will benefit of this revolution. And not only of it. Introduction of Pentium II, more specifically transition from Socket 7 to Slot I will create additional demand for PCs. And as far as I know, DELL unlike CPQ does not plan to enter high-risk high-ticket computer market. This adds some additional safety. All in all it makes me hard to bet on DELL trading significantly lower in 2 years from now. And since I do not believe market correction will be deferred till Y2K, it looks like DELL puts are much more attractive than the LEAPS, for these puts are cheaper. Anyway, I would be interested if you could elaborate your point of view regarding trading strategy on DELL. Kind regards, Alex