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Technology Stocks : Gorilla Game -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Grantcw who wrote (164)	5/3/1998 11:54:00 AM
From: Clam Clam	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 387

>>I'm still a little confused about the open architecture as it relates to technology companies. The book is conceptual and is really based on technology enablers. It also discusses application software companies but a lot of the concepts pertain just to the technology enablers, IMO. I think the point is less about open architecture and more about getting the interests of everybody in the value chain alligned around the new emerging market. The book calls the enabling technology tornado gorilla the best investment on the planet (as evidenced by Microsoft, Intel and Cisco) but this gorilla game has become much more brutal since these gorillas were born. It seems that these three are black holes which kill off nearly all new emerging potential beneficiaries of tornados. The one exception is application software where Microsoft is adamant about not competing. My current belief is that the biggest beneficiaries of the security market (a technology enabling market) will be Cisco and Microsoft. There will be beneficiaries for a while but I doubt a true gorilla will emerge. Supply chain management however is very interesting. I see the value chain developing here. Visionary consulting/implementation firms like Cambridge Technology Partners have recognized that supply chain is a very important trend and more are catching on to this enormous opportunity. My opinion is that there is a misperception in the market that i2 is the gorilla that will win in the Consumer Packaged Goods (CPG) market (MANU's market). I strongly doubt they will be able to beat Manugistics in this market. They will get a few customers (as will SAP) and MANU stock might drop now and then on such wins, but I would use those as opportunities to buy MANU. I think ITWO is a gorilla as well and will be able to do $1b in revenue in the next few years so I would look for opportunities to buy ITWO as well. Near-term however, I've been thinking ITWO is overrated relative to MANU and so I own MANU only.