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To: Lucretius who wrote (21178)	5/3/1998 12:08:00 AM
From: mph	Respond to of 95453

I've noticed it within the last month, Luc, but not before. If you were hinting at it before that point, well, it was by me. Although I don't quite agree with the immediacy of your concern, it would not surprise me at all to see a 10 to 20 percent correction in the not too distant future, maybe more. A full on Bear market seems unlikely for any sustained period, at least until all we baby boomers are actually retired. I'm far from that point, I'm happy to say! mph

To: Lucretius who wrote (21178)	5/3/1998 10:36:00 AM
From: JZGalt	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Off topic - LT I think we're headed for BIG TROUBLE. If everyone was talking about these things, I wouldn't be worried at all. But this is a contrarian opinion that is supported by many indicaotrs. That makes it dangerous. IMO. Agreed it is dangerous. The problem is every vocal bear has shot their wad back at 4500 on the Dow. Clearly we are going to disagree on strategy and timing. You appear to be ready to pull the trigger and take measures assuming that the correction (or worse) will come in the near future. I also see some of the same warning signs, but I am willing to let my profits run for the time being. My indicators flashed a red overvaluation in the first week of April and are even worse now, but are not yet at the danger level for the general market because of the relatively benign inflation levels IMO. It is unclear to me if we are going to suffer through a sideways movement in the market for the next 6 months, or are we going to blow off and crash ala 1987. LT, As much as I admire your making this sort of call in a generally bullish forum, it is still unclear to me which of these past historical periods we might be in: Jun-Sep 1967 - sideways market Jan-May 1971 - sideways market (up then down) August 1973 - inflation kills market Jan-Jun 1980 - sideways market August 1981 - inflation kills market Feb-Apr 1986 - sideways to up bias market Mar-Oct 1987 - rise and crash Mar-Sep 1992 - sideways market Jun-Aug 1996 - sideways market Mar 1997 - sideways market [sideways would indicate there was no significant bear market] 1987 is a particularly interesting case in which it had very high valuations (as measured by p/e + inflation) coupled with a rather small step change in inflation as measured by the CPI. Apr-??? 1998 - sideways??? Perhaps the yr/yr performance on the inflation front which has been helped considerably by the Asian situation will turn negative, but until then I plan to stay long the market in areas that appear to have value (like oil drilling stocks) while selling into strength of the drugs and airlines. FWIW, Barron's reported over the weekend that 89% of the "Big Money" managers see a correction in the next 12 months. To me that would indicate that the dip will be bought assuming they have any cash to deploy.