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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Joey Two-Cents who wrote (8219)	5/3/1998 9:42:00 AM
From: Alexander Pavlov	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18691

<<Alexander, DELL is up over 2,000% in a little over a year, the insiders started selling when it was at 60 (post split) and the competition is in a pricing war. In a market pullback those stocks that rose the fastest fall the furthest. And since I believe this market will crash in the next couple of Q's, stocks like DELL IMO will over correct as fund managers have to sell appreciated issues to raise funds. >> Yes, I feel about DELL in the same way, i.e. correction within next 6 months. But Jan-99 70 puts are 6 3/4, while Jan-00 70 puts are 11 1/2 (ask prices). So, my original question was about LEAPS vs. puts, rather than why they likely will be profitable at all. The question was not out of curiosity, I simply do not feel experienced enough in options trading. And from my amateurish viewpoint in DELL's case January'99 puts are more attractive than January'00 ones. Just based on options price, anticipated timeframe for correction and unclear performance in 1999. Any thoughts? Kind regards, Alex