To: TREND1 who wrote (32758 ) 5/3/1998 10:11:00 PM From: Skeeter Bug Respond to of 53903
larry, forward is always what is important. to say that history never repeats itself is not always true either. some key events will happen shortly for mu. 1. for the first time in a few years mu's 12 month trailing eps will be a loss. just a few months ago mu management was bragging about not reporting a loss during the down cycle. hello? the down cycle hadn't even started yet. shows how sophisticated mu mismanagement is. 2. mu will still be bleeding money at the end of the q. some dull types (as opposed to extremely dull) will then begin to figure out that this 2nd half of 1998 "recovery" is a load of junk. 3. either s&p or the banks had a conversation with mu regarding how they were going to combat these losses this q. it will become more apparent that mu is helpless and can do nothing. now, a company losing millions a q, with their chief competitors at 65% per dj (actually, i'd question this figure as it seems awfully low - it may be the bear equivalent to all the bullish bull that is fed to the gen'l public), their debt having grown $500 mil with interest accruing, a management that puts their energy into talking a good game but can't produce and a regression below their normal business operating income of $0.141 per year is a good thing and the stock will go up. hey, people loaded on this bombshell at $40 and $50+ when their asp was tanking and people believed that eps didn't matter and said so publicly. and they didn't. at least for a while. i, for one, will be impressed if mu trades higher after they report in june b/c it takes some heart, albeit ignorant heart, to fight reality. the minute the chippies and the disk drivers start to see their prices firm then the pc prices will STOP FALLING AND DEMAND GROWTH WILL STOP or the pc makers will begin to see their margin erode to little or nothing. BASIC ECONOMICS.