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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Clint E. who wrote (15815)5/3/1998 5:26:00 PM
From: Jason Chesshir  Respond to of 69786
 
IDBEF breaking out?(eom)



To: Clint E. who wrote (15815)5/3/1998 11:49:00 PM
From: Johnny Canuck  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 69786
 
Hi Clint,

>>Live it up a bit down there! I know it
>>is difficult for engineers to do that but try your best.

Ha! Ha! Ha! We do lack imagination at time don't we. I think
it is part of the brainwashing we get in engineering school. We
can be a little too logical and focused at times.

I get 1 and a half days off this trip, so I hope to see more than
just the inside of a hotel room like I usually do . I am looking forward to this. It sounding like my kind of town if Jim's appraisal of it being a party town is correct.

Here is a link to my ANDW conference call notes:

Message 4308748

The important things out of the call from a more general wireless
infrastructure point of view are:

- International growth is still strong in general, especially Latin America and Europe

- USA infrastructure sales are weak reflecting the completion of the first stage of the PCS build out and the slowing of cellular capital expenditures. The capital budgets spending estimate may be distorted due the emergence of vertical real estate companies. It will interesting to see how this plays out.

- ANDW expect nothing from Korea . This reinforces the slowdown QCOM has seen. It looks like this is a long term problem.

-Thailand and Indonesia remain a question marks.

-China and India are the next growth regions. This will play out over a long period of time though. Q to Q growth and year over year growth will be erratic in those regions as the political environment is as important and the economic one.

-The late stages of the B-Band deployment in Brazil is not expected till 1999. ANDW's products are ordered in the late stages of the deployment since the towers are wired last and the equipment inside the shelters are ordered and tested first. NT has won it share of contract in Latin America in the past.

-There is some activity in the D,E, and F bands in the USA, but the business is not huge. This has an impact on LU, since LU will be looking to replace their 1 billion in wireless infrastructure order backlog soon. Most of it is in the USA. The international business is a lower margin business because of the tough competition as you heard in the LU conference call. Does Techie have a guess at how much of LU's earnings comes from PCS specifically ( CDMA/GSM) ? That part of the business will be hurt. (I noticed a Barron's article downgrading LU on price. This should help your NT short on Monday/Tuesday due to a spill over effect. NT is priced quite high too given the mid-teen growth guidance. )

-There is some digital TV infrastructure building happening already. It might be worth it to see who the players are in this sector.

-There is a 2 gigahertz re-location of spectrum that is still to come.

I will try to finish off my QCOM notes, tonight but I don't think I will have time.

Have fun this week. CSCO earning should set the tone. I expect profit taking after earning though as they would really have to blow away number to justify the current rise in price.

Harry