To: Sylvester who wrote (867 ) 5/3/1998 6:25:00 PM From: Joe Respond to of 4140
What goes up must not necessarily always come down. Sunrise has a great story, not a good story. I always felt BEAM and VISX had very good stories. If you look at BEAM from early days (late '87) it has been an extraordinary ride up to early '96. The VISX ride, while not an extraordinary one, was done without the hype and they have been quite successful. The reason the Sunrise story is so much better than either VISX and BEAM is that the population their product address is much, much larger. Regardless of any testing being done with excimers for hyperopia, any patient would be a fool to choose that procedure over the Sunrise LTK. (I have had both my eyes treated with LTK. It's a very minor procedure. There is no way I would have the epithilum scraped off my eyes and have surgery on my cornea. I would prefer to continue wearing glasses.) The argument that an opthalmologist who owns or participates in a group owning an excimer will push that procedure over a simple, easily tolerated, lower cost LTK procedure is simply nonsense and will not hold up once the FDA approves LTK procedure. The excimer laser centers will easily be able to add an LTK system since the cost is relatively low and as an added benefit, they will be able to fix the mistakes they make, the overcorrections made with the excimer. (That, by the way, is significant incentive for expeditious FDA approval.) Add in a significant body of approved patents protecting the process and you have a great story. I don't know what all this means in terms of the market. I think once some analysts start running some numbers projecting sales and earnings, we will see a significant institutional move into the stock causing some major upward price moves. (My guess is that most institutions have rules prohibiting their ownership of BB stocks.) For now, any significant news, e.g., completion of another chapter, will cause a move to a new support level. Ultimately, I think that we will see SNRS approach a $600M to $800M market cap upon approval by the FDA. After that, it is a matter of how well the company is able to fulfill the promise contained in the story.