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Technology Stocks : Concurrent Computer (CCUR) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: James M. Bash who wrote (3603)	5/4/1998 7:55:00 AM
From: Randolph Gwirtzman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 21143

James, Like most people (probably including most on this board), I don't ascribe to the efficient market hypothesis, whereby given full non-insider information the public will price securities according to their intrinsic value. If I believed in that theory, I would buy an index fund and be done with it. That a stock like SEAC (with negative earnings) has been bid up so high is a function of both earnings expectations, and probably a good degree of irrationality. I agree with you, that in this market there is no telling where a stock's PRICE may go. This is because people in these heady days generally DON'T know the intrinsic values of the stocks in which they invest -- they only know where the momentum is. An informed investor would not buy a stock they thought was way overpriced, simply because they thought the momentum would take it higher. This is nothing more than the "greater fool" thoery, and I for one do not want to be the fool holding a momentum stock at its highest traded value after it corrects. All I am saying, is that you should use whatever tools you can to make informed, intelligent investment decisions. We may be of different schools of investing, but we both have the same goal.

To: James M. Bash who wrote (3603)	5/4/1998 9:25:00 PM
From: Randolph Gwirtzman	Respond to of 21143

James, I just wanted to bring up the salient portions of the two press releases you posted. Thanks for culling those us for us. I apologize if I misquoted any of the releases. Here's how I see it. According to the conference call CCUR received minor VOD revenues in the 3Q (ended 3/31/98). This comports with the 10/97 press release, and I'm guessing that they saw $1 to $2 million in revenue in 3Q. The 4Q results are what everyone is breathlessly awaiting, since this is when the residential cable revenues should start coming in (probably in small amounts). Though the posted 4Q revenues will likely be minor, by then we'll have a good idea of what to expect in CCUR's fiscal 98 in terms of order potential (1Q ends 9/30/98). If the revenues start to come in in 4Q, it will be because of ONCO and cable based revenues. By then, I think the cat will be out of the bag, and the company's price could really take off. From the company's official releases, CCUR seems fairly confident that the SFA integration will lead to some pretty significant major cable contracts (if they don't already have them). This is where the significant source of CCUR earnings will come from. SFA seems to be selling a substantial number of its Explorer 2000 boxes, which bodes well for CCUR. 10/30/97 press release "Our video-on-demand business continues to progress on plan in the cable and hospitality markets. With the support of the cable industry, we are integrating our video server with Scientific-Atlanta's set-top box specifically designed for the residential marketplace. Our stated plan for video-on-demand revenue starting up in the third quarter and having a significant impact in fiscal year 1999 is still on track." 2/6/98 press release "Video-on-demand continues to progress on several market fronts. In the hospitality market, we have been selected by On Command Corporation as one of two vendors to supply digital video servers. On Command is the largest supplier of video-on-demand to the hospitality market worldwide, providing service to 3,100 hotels comprising approximately one million rooms. Its customers include Hyatt, Marriott, Marriott Courtyard, Residence Inn, Hilton, and Ritz Carlton." "On the residential front, we have established two significant alliances. Concurrent has signed an exclusive marketing agreement with Omnio Inc., a Time Warner spinoff. Omnio key personnel were responsible for Time Warner's Full Service Network in Orlando, Florida. Omnio will assist in marketing Concurrent's video servers to the Time Warner Divisions, as well as to other multi-system operators." "Second, we continue to work with Scientific-Atlanta to integrate our video server with its Explorer(r) 2000 set top box, which has been selected by Time Warner, Adelphia Communications, Comcast Cable, Cox Cable, Marcus Cable, and MediaOne. The integration should be completed in May and will be demonstrated in a new video-on-demand laboratory under construction at Concurrent's headquarters in Ft. Lauderdale, Florida. We believe the relationships forged with On Command, Omnio, Scientific-Atlanta and others will start generating revenue in our fourth quarter, calendar second quarter, with volume shipments in our fiscal year 1999, July 1, 1998 to June 30, 1999."