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Technology Stocks : Winstar Comm. (WCII) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: wonk who wrote (5700)	5/4/1998 4:55:00 AM
From: SteveG	Respond to of 12468

ww- (working too late) I don't read AOL, but would NOT be surprised if his posts there were "articulate". He may well have a second year college vocabulary and some familiarity with English syntax. But the question I would ask is "are his posts even accurate and reasonable, let alone sophisticated?" As has been discussed here previously, he claimed that he sold the July 50 calls (he likely got about $150/contract) and bought the Jul 40 puts (at probably around $625) for a net cost of ~$475/contract - which he loses completely between 40 and 50, and partially down to his breakeven of $35. He only makes money below $35, and loses an additional $100/contract for every point above $50. This is a very bearish stance, especially for someone unfamiliar with industry fundamentals, hazy on the company fundamentals and pretty sloppy in his due diligence. The stock is well above it's 200 day, is on it's way to retesting it's 50 day, has strong support at 35, and even more support 32ish. So even technically, it seems his upside is a not very likely few dollars/share at best. And if the stock closes at $60, say, he'd be out $1475/contract. Most analysts feel a takeover would not be under $100, so if something like this occurred, or was even rumored, he could take a very serious hit of more than $5000/contract. I peg his reasonable upside at $300/contract, and a very conservative downside at greater than $600/contract. Frankly, I really don't believe he is involved financially in the markets. And if he is, even though he might brag to it, I doubt he'd put on such a trade. But considering "what IF he did?", for this trade to be reasonable he would need to know the company is about to crumble, otherwise he just likes to play chicken with his money (or us for attention) Further, his bogus claim about putting on a trade, and then backpeddling that he found out later (after how many days?) that he didn't actually get it filled, tells most of us he's full of baloney. Also, if he really did somehow just "miss" it, why not put on the other half the next day with the stock a little higher even? He seems just a pathetic guy thriving on the attention he gets here (perhaps filling a void from his teachers, who like many of us, have long since tired of him) In short, I've seen nothing sophisticated about his purported option trading strategy, and everything sophomoric. I see you are JA reincarnate (or is it reinsilicate?) I appreciated your response, (How do people do stuff here like kill messages and change their name, anyhow?) but would want to add that Teleport at $11.3B for 4K on-net buildings was for generally much larger buildings (fiber HAS to be). So "twice the plant" comparisons with TCGI will likely NOT be so in # of lines. Still, a far more conservative 1/3 to 1/2 the plant (with WCII's anticipated 8K on-net at end of 99) at twice the margins should still provide a top down WCII valuation north of $150 (1/2 the TCGI takeover valuation). And I'd sure take such a 4 banger (8 banger if margined) in 20 months, if not sooner/better. Steve