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Strategies & Market Trends : The Stock Market Bubble -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Roger A. Babb who wrote (156)	5/5/1998 2:15:00 PM
From: Arik T.G.	Respond to of 3339

Roger, Congratulations on a good thread, and a timely one, as well. As you know I was calling for a big crash in spring '98 since August '97. Message 1948178 I'm most certain we're in the bubble stage of the 16 years bull run. here's my latest: Message 4329065 BTW, the October mini crash took the market under the 200 DMA just for one day the-privateer.com The two most obvious features of a bubble: - Wide public participation - Accelerating rise Are fully met by current market conditions. New era? The new era was the roaring '20s. Now we're in a new new era. One feature of the bubble you mentioned is that it grows more then anybody can expect. In '29 Dr. Fisher was the biggest bull, and before the crash even he didn't expect another significant rise, as can be judged from his saying "We have reached a high platau". Nowadays Abbey Joseph Cohen (sp?) is the biggest bull guru and the market exceeded even her targets. Perhaps it is a sign, when the market outruns even the most optimistic forecasts, that the bubble is about to burst. Last I know, Abbey's target was 9300 for the Dow. I believe the market will crash from around 9800, a 5% spillover. Anyway, calling tops is a risky business in a bubble. The best before-the-top advice I can give is: 1. Keep out of the market- You need not participate in this crazy run. 2. Short the market the first time it fails to rebound from under the 200 DMA. That would be a clear signal that the long term trend has changed. 3. Refrain from calling the bottom as much as you would from calling the top. Bottom fish only for short term rebounds. Bull markets have no resistance and bear markets have no supports. ATG

To: Roger A. Babb who wrote (156)	5/5/1998 2:56:00 PM
From: Defrocked	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3339

Warning>>>For discussion purposes only<<< The following is a totally hypothetical "Bubble burster". Items in quotation are from today's Bloomberg. Al-Naimi, the oil minister of Saudi Arabia is meeting with Undersecretary of State Stuart Eizenstat this afternoon at 3:00EST. to discuss "a range of commercial issues affecting their countries." Coincidentally(?) Alan Greenspan will meet at the White House with Bill Clinton, Robert Rubin, and Gene Sperling(Nat.Econ.Coun. chrm.) for "an informal session in which the president and Greenspan talk about where they see the economy going". Will Al-Naimi tell Eizenstat that the dual pricing of oil in both euros and dollars will be an agenda item at the June 24th OPEC meeting? Is AG briefing Bill and Bob about the possible ramifications for US govt.debt and the economy? The preceeding drivel is not substantiated and contains no inside information...but watch the dollar. The US is not immune to its own forced devaluation. Especially with 11% M3 growth vs. 4% in Europe. Also recall that the Depression was highly influenced by the Fed's defense of the dollar and Europe's deposit withdrawals. My, my, my....the uncanny parallels continue.<g>