Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Siebel Systems (SEBL) - strong buy? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: still learning who wrote (1478)	5/4/1998 3:49:00 PM
From: Shege Dambanza	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6974

Some comments: -agree that GG doesn't think anyone has full TERM functionality; but that doesn't really mean much for a new entrant. GG thinks the most likely way of integration (esp with backoffice) will be APIs, through 2000. -let's say it takes 'only' $10M to build a 'comprehensive' CIS system (whatever that is). If you agree with that number, that translates into 60 person-years at $167K fully burdened cost/programmer/year. Unlike the problems we had to solve when we were kids, 60 programmer-years does NOT mean that 60 programmers can do the work in one year (and yes, I know Oracle thinks otherwise). -GG and Yankee are not the best estimators of how long IT projects take. -You underestimate the importance of SI and infrastructure. -You neglect the importance of skill/experience of the programmer base. It's not going to be easy for a new entrant to find the skillset needed to conceive and design a full TERM app. Why do you think Siebel bought Scopus? Certainly not the product. -Even if you got your 60 programmers going at it all the time, it will take them a year. In the mean time the current players are not exactly sitting fat and happy. They are investing a significant chunk of change into ongoing R&D, and given their experience and momentum they can probably maintain a technological lead. -the surprise factor is tough as an industry gets more established. Business intelligence is pretty good and you always hear about new companies trying to enter the space. Anyone hiring 20 programmers skilled in CIS would be easy to detect.