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To: Tech Master who wrote (13586)	5/4/1998 7:19:00 PM
From: Andrew Vance	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 17305

AV--You are absotively and posilutely correct on your assessment. It just goes to show that I am consistently in too soon and out too soon<GGG>. Considering the swings from the low 40s to the high 50s once or twice, I think I left more than 10 points on the table today. I think I should be flamed, roasted and tarred and feathered for leaving that 10 points on the table. It was my tightly controlled moving stop loss that caused this debacle. I promise never to do it again until the next time I garner $38 points in a day. I just wish I knew how to use the valuable information provided here on the Stock Swap more effectively. A clever short at 60 down to today's close would have been nice but I just didn't have it in me to perform.<GGG> Woe is me for I have failed you dear Tech Master. I am not worthy<GGGG>. You will obviously become the "real deal" if and when ENMD tanks to $30. I am fighting the Greed Monster who wants to short this stock at the open or slightly after the open since I do think you are correct for holding over the night. As people digest the news, the run, the volatility, and the questions now raised about when and if this is really a cure, they might get a whole different perspective and bail out. Tomorrow will be very interesting. Now for a different subject. Some rumors that are worthy of discussing along with an update of some of last year's merger theories. AMAT to buy SVGL - did not occur but it wasn't from a lack of trying. A very informed source has told me that this deal was to go through last year in July (SEMICON WEST) but fell apart because they could not agree on a purchase price for the acquisition. AMAT has a 50 person division now whose product line is a real sophisticated DUV track system just itching to be affiliated with a good stepper. Well, SVGL is not doing so well with its Connecticut facility all decked out and not producing steppers. Yep, they are talking to each other again and maybe they will come to terms on price prior to SEMICON WEST. IF they do not come to terms, and I do not think SVGL is the right candidate for acquisition anyway (#4 behind Nikon, ASMLF, and Canon), it is within AMAT's capabilities to go after either Canon or ASMLF if they wanted to. A stretch but possible. Bottom line, AMAT is still looking to add lithography to its stable of products. UTEK-ISI unfortunately looks as if it is a done deal. At least some of ISI's customers are acting as if this is a lock deal. This is not a great marriage but a marriage that may work. I previously stated that UTEK may not want the tracks that come along with the deal. Well, it has just also been inferred to me that ISI and UTEK previously were courting each other but could not come to terms on the final price for the purchase of ISI. They seemed to be off by close to $10 million relative to sales price. ISI has unsuccessfully tried to get AMAT to buy them first, last year, then started talking to UTEK. Round 1 of the ISI-UTEK courtship failed and Round 2 has begun. Make no mistake about it, they are talking seriously with each other this time around. I think UTEK has the upper hand but the 0.08u Univ of Texas-Austin deal should be of sme help boosting the price. Bottom line here is that if UTEK buys ISI this time around, you can almost bet that the UTEK stock will pullback as UTEK either sells off or shuts down the track segment of the business. I am almost positive that UTEK has an aversion to being in the track business since they did have a previous shot at the old MTI track business and passed. ASMLF-as much as I like these guys and they are about to split once again, I am seeing some order pushouts or cancellationas coming, expecially at MOT. Doesn't look good since it is shaky as to whether MOT will be replacing some Canon steppers with ASMLF equipment real soon. A little bit of politics and some bad market conditions. UTEK is selling systems to IBM for the GMR head business mentioned in the WD/IBM article I posted today. The MEMS business is starting to look good and promising. However, even with these rays of sunshine it is doubtful that UTEK will perform well for the rest of the year. UTEK looks real good for 1999 but rather lackluster for the rest of the year. They may meet expectations but I do not see any monumental upside for the remainder of the year. And by the way, when you consider the ranking of the stepper players, I am of the opinion that being below #2 or #3 on the list is an unprofitable situation unless you are in a tight niche market. In general this means that between Nikon, ASMLF, and Canon you have the major players for DUV with the rest being also-rans. With that said, I wouldn't even be backing Canon at this point and would concede greatness for both Nikon and ASMLF. This makes both Canon and ASMLF ideal targets for an AMAT takeover. ISI is not publicly traded so there is no play here. UTEK may experience a pullback if they announce an ISI acquisition based on existing ISI sales, the burden of the track component of that business, and a questionable move by UTEK inot the DUV market. UTEK would be better off putting the funds to better use by accelerating their work or initiating work on the present Ultrabeam for direct write wafer processing to leap frog their competition for the next generation of wafer processing. SVGL may get a slight pop if the AMAT deal is resurrected and comes to fruition this year. Yep, another SEMICON WEST timeframe in July. This time AMAT may start out lower and SVGI may accept a lower price, given prevailing market conditions. I do not think the SVGL component of SVGI has been factored into the equation. A disappointing sale of the SVGL division might cause a sideways motion or a drop in price for SVGI. However, the bright side is that the sale COULD stem the flow of some red ink relative to this operation and give SVGI a nice boost. At this point in time I am thinking that SVGI will take a minor pop up when the sale is announced or concluded since they will stop some of their corporate bleeding. LRCX and NVLS - while not mentioned above, these guys are not going to stand idly by and watch AMAT become a stronger force to be reckoned with. They are also up to something on their own. It would not surprise me to see Strasbaugh become part of LRCX down the road and not just a strategic partner. NVLS has its eye on a few tidbits themselves and may even decide to gobble up SFAM just so they are not left out of the CMP picture completely. It also makes a great deal of sense. All and all, the sector is ripe for some nice mergers and acquistions, if not consolidations. Too many guys in trouble like GSNX, MTSN, AGAI, to name a few. These guys could benefit by being brought "into the fold." Let's not forget about KLAC (KLAC-TNCR). It really surprised me that AMAT acquired two metrology companies in the past. I never understood why a "creator" of wafer level structures would want to be in the diagnostic tooling business. With this said, and knowing that AMAT is sitting on a DUV track system, I cannot help but feel that KLAC might want to have a healthy alliance or marriage with the like of a NVLS or LRCX, with NVLS making the most amount of sense. Finally, a reminder. LRCX has a big for Sale sign hanging out in front of it. They are very willing to talk to any propsective buyers, IMO. As was stated before, "the coffee pot is brewing on the stove so come and visit." Andrew