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Strategies & Market Trends : Asia Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Stitch who wrote (3345)	5/4/1998 11:17:00 PM
From: B Tate	Respond to of 9980

Ahhh Stitch <<<Life in "paradise" is never all its cut out to be >>> AS you know, whilst you were battling the natives, I was subjected to the unfamiliar hospitality of folks who were born to run resorts. Real people with smiles on their faces that wanted to HELP. In fact we played a little game all weekend. Pick out the Malays. - It really is easy, just look for the unsmiling eyes - but vacation is not why I post. Again, a few days in Thailand reading the Bankok Post was worth the price of the ticket. ('bout $200 USD for air, 3 nights in a great resort hotel, breakfast, transfers and one dinner in any restraunt in the complex.) Two articles are stuck in my brain, the first was about Malaysia (Mahathir) loaning Indonesia some Xbillion as a bridge loan until the IMF 'releases' funds held until reforms are in place. What a HOOOT that one was. Basically, so what if Indonesia renegs again!? The second was almost as funny, MAHATHIR TELLS JAPAN TO GET ITS ACT TOGETHER AND DO MORE FOR ITS ECONOMY. What the hell does he want them to do? Build the worlds tallest bridge, shortest bullet train, finish ANY construction project, make it rain, or just in general copy Malaysia? OOps there was a third article that will interest all of us. YEP! Three standard pages with graphs and all about the Asia crisis. I read it twice on the flight back and then proceeded to leave it in the seat pocket. - Damn - the article was aimed at Thai investors who typically invest in Malaysia and Singapore. It highly recommended that NO investment be made in either stock market. With the declining Yen these markets area seen as participating in a 'false rebound' (can you smell a dead cat?). The Yen was forcasted to be in the 140 range within a couple of months and in the region of 160 - 200 by the end of the year. Seems that with a devalued Yen the economies of both countries will nosedive again. Both markets will test new lows as a minimum and quite possible go right through the old lows. There were excellent fundamental and techincal analysis, -spent a lot of time scribbling on the article and then left it behind ;-0 -, overall a thoughtful and well written piece. Lest anyone think this was aimed at retaining investment in Thailand for nationalistic purposes, they did mention that overseas investors would be better served with money put in Taiwan or even Korea. Took a little licence with the first two, but the third was a serious piece on the outlook for the region. Interesting to me since I am thinking seriously of a 'sweat equity' investment in the area. Didn't know there were 18,949 hotel rooms in/on Phuket island. Hmmmmm with 54% occupancy thats over 10,000 souls at any given time, if there is only one to a room. More later, BTW did you here the one about the Sheraton hotel that had to remove all their guests due to no aircon? Seems the chiller system installed 7 years ago didn't use treated water. Yup, complete calcification does neat stuff. Regards bt

To: Stitch who wrote (3345)	5/5/1998 8:45:00 AM
From: Worswick	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9980

I think I can now think of both you and Bernie as, "Our boys in the bush". Your two posts are just the thing for us to read in the safer precincts of the west. Your posts bring a human scale and a thoughful reprise of what is happening out there. As you know what we get now here is the NY Times, the best around, which is now copying the local color seen in the A&P and Grand Union weekly adverts for sales. The potted news we get about Asia is like quadruple filtered coffee. So an A + to both of you. Between times what do you both think of my Sime Darby price of $.45 now??? I know you both think I have been half eaten by ursus majoris and left with only half an arm. My best to both of you,