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To: Thomas M. who wrote (21382)	5/4/1998 7:35:00 PM
From: waverider	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Luc, for heaven's sake stay aboard. Your articulate posts and well explained perspectives are important here. As I said before, I appreciated your well thought out explanation for your bearish stance. A lot of folks come off with these predictions without much to back them up. But like Ms Garz, indicators sometimes are dead wrong. I followed her opinions like a hawk and even subscribed to her newsletter...until she shouted SELL EVERYTHING at the very bottom of that last serious correction. She did admit her mistake and got back in, but not until the market had long passed her by...and that is the problem with market timing. While you might make one accurate prediction, making two is nearly impossible. When to get back in. I don't agree with your perspective on stock purchases. I really care little for what a stock price is going in the short run. I buy the company and let Wall Street get its collective underwear tied up in knots over the second by second ticker tape movement. It helps prevent ulcers. That said here are some stat's to chew on regrading the S&P 500 Index: PE: 20 yr high = 27.6/ 20 yr low = 8/ Current = 27.6 Dividend Yield 5.4%/ 1/4%/ 1.4% Price/cash flow 14.8/ 4.8/ 14.8 Price/book 5.7/ 1.1/ 5.7 And remembering Ben Graham: "Imagaine that in some private business you own a small share which cost you $1,000. One of your partners, named Mr. Market, is very obliging indeed. Every day he tells you what he thinks your interest is worth and furthermore offers either to buy you out or to sell you an additional interest on that basis. Sometimes his idea of value appears plausible and justified by business developments and prospects as you know them. Often, on the other hand, Mr. Market lets his enthusiasm or his fears run away with him, and the value he proposes seems to you little short of silly."