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To: Abner Hosmer who wrote (11265)5/5/1998 1:14:00 AM
From: philv  Respond to of 116762
 
Tom: Not to belabor the point, but one cannot achieve economic union while allowing member C.B.s to pursue their own monetary goals. Co-operative framework and rules must be in place. I would expect this to extend even to reserves. The C.B.s must have common goals supervised by the ECB, just like the Fed Reserve system in the U.S.
If it is otherwise, the union will fail as it falls into bickering and national hostility. I have faith that the Europeans know this all too well. Otherwise, yes, the EMU will be stillborn.

We shall have to see and weigh the information as it becomes available in the future. Contrary opinions are always welcomed and even invited.

I have no idea what the impact of all of this is on the POG, but I agree with the statement that the EMU is not the "missing link to the next gold bull market"

Thanks

Phil



To: Abner Hosmer who wrote (11265)5/5/1998 6:12:00 AM
From: Gabriela Neri  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 116762
 
Your consistent bearishness is obvious and you have made your point ad infinitum . Common sense dictate that if the various central banks want to sell off the remaining amount of gold reserves or reduce them, they can do so over time without disrupting the market in a significant fashion, as they have done for many years prior to the EMU. The beginning of the EMU created a special time urgency for some CB's which will now not be a factor.

Nonetheless, I would bet that this issue, per se, becomes less relevant to the gold market-shall we say fades away over time as the central issue affecting price of gold. Something else will come up or many things will come up which will have a more direct impact. The obvious in financal markes never rules the roost.



To: Abner Hosmer who wrote (11265)5/5/1998 7:31:00 AM
From: Gabriela Neri  Respond to of 116762
 
An excellent piece by Mr. Kaplan on the current state of affairs. I particularly like the last line poker reference.

THE ENVELOPE PLEASE-My award for best mainstream financial writer for the past few years is no contest-it goes to Floyd Norris, whose Market Watch column can be found on the bottom of the first page of the Sunday New York Times Business Section each week. Along with the occasional sober article in Barron's Weekly, Mr. Norris is the only major-media reporter who consistently, intelligently, and entertainingly points out the flaws in the new era brainwashing perpetuated by the media who are virtually owned by the mutual fund holding companies and major brokerage houses through their advertising dollars. In his column on May 3, Floyd Norris notes that "An odd dichotomy is developing in American financial markets. The managers entrusted with investing cash are keeping their clients' money fully invested. But when it comes to their own investments, they are taking a slightly [I love the sarcastic understatement in the word "slightly", which really means "completely"] different course. They are selling. 'We're seeing a wave' of money manager deals, said John Downing, a Goldman, Sachs partner who focuses on raising money for financial companies. Why now? 'It's the valuations, predominantly', he said." [In other words, they're cashing out while the getting out is good. Who do you think is going to come out ahead in the end-these well-informed, well-heeled industry professionals who are selling, or the horde of little investors who are throwing money at equity funds? There's an old saying among poker players: If you don't know who the patsy [neophyte loser] is at your table, then YOU'RE the patsy.]



To: Abner Hosmer who wrote (11265)5/5/1998 9:31:00 AM
From: Enigma  Respond to of 116762
 
'Excess cargo' presumably the Euro Central Banks will have all sorts of other excess cargos in the form of currencies, which, according to this argument, they can dump too, but what would they buy when they dump something - which leads to the underlying question - why do they need reserves at all after ECU - saving for a rainy day?