To: Abner Hosmer who wrote (11280 ) 5/5/1998 12:26:00 PM From: menanna Respond to of 116762
USAGOLD's DAILY MARKET REPORT/For Current Quotes Call 1-800-869-5115 5/5/98 MARKET UPDATE (5/5/98) AM ---- Gold was sideways this morning. Both the Tokyo and London markets were closed for holidays, so New York will carry the ball for gold today. The market bias at present appears to be to the upside with silver and platinum both surging in the early going. The XAU (gold mining share index) is also up at the open. In recent weeks the XAU has led the physical metal higher or lower and served as a fairly good indicator of speculative interest in the yellow metal. The market continues to be characterized by the lack of producer hedging and central bank lending in the wake of the new EMU agreements. With demand continuing to rise and supply dwindling, the only thing keeping this market from rising is the continued paper selling on the part of some of the bullion banks and brokerage firms with a vested interest in a stagnant to declining gold market. At some point as we have argued repeatedly here the demand for physical metal will run the short sellers out of the market and the free market for gold will assert itself. The level of desperation on the part of the short-siders was apparent at the end of last week when erroneous rumors of Belgian central bank gold sales were planted by unknown indivicuals. As it is Ted Arnold of Merrill Lynch, the "gold analyst" for the firm our sources inform us had been "in the market in a big way" last Thursday when the market dumped, was back at it again this morning giving Merrill Lynch clients the false impression that European central banks will be selling at some point in the future. His reasoning? "One great revenue source will be the gold sitting in the vaults of the national central banks," says Arnold . Characteristically, he fails to consider why the central banks would use gold as a reserve asset in the first place (to the tune of 15% to 30%). A more sensible course of action, as we have contended here and in our newsletter on various occasions, would be for a nation with fiscal problems to up-value the gold reserve if necessary, thus bolstering their total reserves as required by the Maastricht accords? This would be of particular benefit to countries like Germany which have not as yet revalued their gold reserves. Gold is carried on the books in Germany at roughtly $90 per ounce. Further, wouldn't it make even more sense to operate the government on a fiscally responsible basis in the first place so that there would no need to sell gold to defend the currency? Let's go one step further: Is Mr. Arnold telling us that the Maastricht Treaty is meaningless? That the provisions preventing the various nations from selling gold without approval of the ECB and also maintaining stringent reserve requirements will be ignored? When some central banks in Europe found it necessary to sell gold as a means for meeting Maastricht criteria prior to the May 1, 1998 launch, Arnold and his group made much public hay over the Maastricht requirements and how this was going to drive gold to $100 before EMU implementation. Some in the mining industry and within the central banks bought these arguments. Merrill Lynch et al are now finding these same arguments a bit difficult to make, so they have switched gears. Now when Maastricht has been fulfilled and he has little left from which to argue the short-seller sales pitch, he wants to ignore the accord and make even more vacuous arguments about "fiscal powers." When you apply economic logic to the situation with gold in Europe what you come up with is that far from encouraging gold sales, the EMU accords will discourage gold sales because that government would immediately be forced to tighten the fiscal belt if it did. Doesn't this all really have more to do with the high commission business Merrill Lynch and others have conducted acting as a broker between the central banks and the mining companies? Along these lines just what is the net gold position of Merrill Lynch (and its clientele on its advice)? Long or short? My bet is short and short in the extreme! Perhaps Ted Arnold and Merrill Lynch's greatest fear is that the physical metal will dry up and that they will be unable to square positions at a profit. Shouldn't Reuters and other wire services take this into account when they give people like Ted Arnold free and unopposed rein on the wire services? Just a few questions to warm-up an otherwise quiet Tuesday morning. One more point: Here at USAGOLD/Centennial Precious Metals we represent a clientele that owns gold. We do not try to hide that fact, nor do we try hide the fact that we are defenders of gold and its utility as a defense against profligate government monetary and fiscal policies. There is no mystery about where we are coming from. Why is Ted Arnold so anti-gold? Why has this gold analyst, if he is truly an unbiased analyst, never found a reason to say something positive about the metal? When gold hit $278 he said it was going to $150 or some such nonsence. Instead it went up over 10%. Now he is back at it trying to beat the price down with whatever machination he can come up with. If ML and its clientele are short the market what is the problem with admitting it? In short, why all the mystery? At the same time, if he did admit his bias, shouldn't that fact be included in any wire service story where he is quoted? The second printing of "In the Footsteps of Giants" is now being prepared at the printer. Quite frankly we are overwhelmed with the response having sold out of the first printing in less than month. There is a great deal of interest in ANOTHER's THOUGHTS, the possible gold-for-oil deal struck between the Gulf states and the European central banks, and the international monetary situation as described by our secretive ( and knowledgeable) internet entity. We were going to take the price to $34.95 after selling the first printing out, but it sold so fast at the $25 price, that we have decided to move the price to $30 for the next 500 copies instead of $34.95. By doing it this way, we reward those who bought the first 500 copies and still offer a discount to new buyers who might be interested in this provocative analysis. We will continue to include "The ABCs of Gold Investing" at $10 (reg. $14.95) if you buy "In the Footsteps of Giants". There is still one more major article coming out on the subject so books could go fast. As before, orders will be filled on a first-come, first-served basis. Call Marie for book orders at 1-800-869-5115. Ask for a broker if you want metal quotes; or go to the EMail button at the Home Page and electronically emit your interest. PLEASE REMEMBER: IT IS YOUR PURCHASE OF GOLD FROM CENTENNIAL PRECIOUS METALS/USAGOLD THAT NOURISHES THESE PAGES! Order Form