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To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (13638)5/5/1998 4:20:00 PM
From: Andrew Vance  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 17305
 
*AV*--It was tempting to take the rest of the week off but there were some plays that I wanted to get into.

First and most important, it floors me that PRIA was not on that list either. I do not know if they are far and away the leader in Fab automation but they are certainly very close to it. However, the ASYT research report also released by this analyst clearly inferred that while the market is growing for minienvironments, ASYT was going to lose market share. What I mean it that the prospects for ASYT are real good down the road even with the market share erosion. He states that ASYT has about 85% of the market and will more than likely concede about 30% as the market grows from $170 million to $600 million. In round numbers ASYT presently has $150 million of the market and will double that to $300 million over the next few years. Very good growth even with market share erosion. Why mention this relative to PRIA??? Simple, it is my considered opinion that ASYT will give up marketshare to PRIA in light of the strategic acquisitions that PRIA has made over the past few years. I see PRIA the major competitor for ASYT down the road in certain sectors. When you factor this in with the other degments that PRIA is the major force (and does not compete with ASYT), I have to agree with you that this analyst is missing the boat.

I added some more PRIA to the portfolio today at these depressed prices and am very comfrotable in waiting for it to produce the future gains it is capable of.

I just rechecked the documentation and he does not clearly state the timeframe for these price targets. The top group have the biggest gains while the bottom tier is very close to their targets now. This does really say much, does it??

I would like to mention that my ambivalence for SVGI over the past 18 months seems to be reflected in both its present price and the analyst target price. It was not until I saw the sub $20 price moments ago that I realized this stock has never taken off on the SVGL speculation of glory. There is a great deal of bleeding taking place in Connecticut over the lack of sales for the Micrascan. As stated before, I would not be surprised to see SVGL sold off to AMAT for a price more in line with what AMAT offered last year and was rejected by SVGI. This was a SEMICON WEST acquisition that I wrote about last year that did not occur. Reason was the lack of coming to terms on price.

As much as I preferred IPEC over SFAM, I am starting to acquire SFAM shares in hopes that NVLS decides to take the plunge and acquire SFAM within this calendar year.

Andrew