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Technology Stocks : Base Ten (Basea) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Dharmak2 who wrote (49)5/5/1998 3:45:00 PM
From: Dharmak2  Respond to of 152
 
The above buy recommendation was given by Mark Arbeter the Chief Standard and Poors Technical Analyst for Market Scope.



To: Dharmak2 who wrote (49)5/6/1998 11:06:00 AM
From: Rick Bullotta  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 152
 
Hmmm...

Seems awfully irresponsible of a recommendation based on the following line:

<<With $13 million in cash, a new management team, and a very exciting opportunity to participate in the rapid growth for MES systems for the pharmaceutical industry, think BASEA has huge potential with very little risk>>

"Very little risk" is simply not the case. There is VERY SIGNIFICANT risk in an investment in this security, but there is also the *potential* for SIGNIFICANT return...

As was the case in the past, the growth rate of the MES "packaged software" industry has been consistently overestimated by industry analysts, often by a 1-2 orders of magnitude. Nor have the companies that serviced this segment demonstrated impressive growth in either revenues or profitability (witness CSIM's divestiture of Flowstream and BaseTen's results-to-date).

Also, despite Base Ten's CEO's words, the current breed of pharmaceutical MES offerings do very little to affect plant productivity or cost control, and if past implementations are any indication, might even increase costs! Rather, the pharmaceutical MES software suppliers that position themselves (in addition to providing an electronic production recording system) as a bridge between the plant floor systems (controls & automation) and the supply chain management systems can have an effect on costs & productivity.

To date, I have seen no indication that Base Ten has made any significant movement in this direction. One of Base Ten's competitors, on the other hand, has announced a partnership with a major supply chain mgmt vendor and it working closely with the biggest plant floor automation software vendor to address these needs.

I want to see results, not words. As I've said many times in the past, I think they can turn it into a profitable business, but not without bold, innovative, and decisive action. Not with more of the status quo in an market segment that has already been labelled a failure. When I see this, I will buy back in to BASEA without hesitation (sold my previous position out in the 12's).