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Microcap & Penny Stocks : DGIV-A-HOLICS...FAMILY CHIT CHAT ONLY!! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: dwlima who wrote (3417)	5/6/1998 11:02:00 AM
From: Pablo Escobar	Respond to of 50264

I would personally like to thank (in no particular order) Lazarre, Bill, Rocketman, risk-averse, & dwlima for responding to my concerns. Why am I here: I like to debate topics, get everyone's opinion on the subject. Evaluate the responses see where I have made judgment errors if any. My opinion is no more right than yours is. Economics is a very tricky subject. As one of my former ECON professors told me. If you stick 5 economists in a room for an hour with one question you will have 7 opinions after the hour is up. The name: Yes Pablo Escobar was a Columbian Drug lord. For those who do not know he was gunned down at the Cali Columbia Airport several years ago while he exited his plane. I choose his name because he is dead and no longer needs it. Also, I needed an identity for SI and you can imagine the frustrations I went through finding an identity which hasn't been chosen already. Finally I wanted to see what type of a reaction I would receive from you. I make no political statements by the use of this name. Nor did I condone his actions while he was alive. Amazing how many of you remembered who he was. Says allot about the glorification of people on TV. I wonder if anyone knows who Nikon's first Vice President was or even Jimmy Crater's VP. That's way off topic but this would be an interesting topic for discussion. Why Indonesia: Dgiv is a growing company a failed acquisition could severely hurt DGIV's shareholders value. Thus justifying a short position. I am in no way saying the acquisition will fail I am simply leaving that open as possibility. I will admit I believe it is a remote possibility. Secondly, The revenues earned from this unit in the near term will see devaluation do to the rupiahs volatility. The inflationary pressures that Monday's price hikes will have not to mention the announced increase in electricity rates, will further devalue the rupiah. Thus devaluing your recent investment and its potential temporarily. This temporary devaluation will effect DGIV's earnings. Thus justifying a short position. A rise in interest rates will only slow down the recovery in Indonesia. Lessening demand here in the US means less demand for Indonesia's products. Current Petroleum market. As I understand it Indonesia is heavily tied to the petroleum market. Thus as long as oil prices and gasoline prices remain soft so will their economy. Not to mention that current sentiment in Indonesia is that things will get worse before they get better. A quote from G. Kartasasmita courtesy of the WSJ. " Things will become more difficult before they get better, " G. Kartasasmita is Indonesia's Alan Greenspan. Head of the economy. As I stated early I will not even begin to hypothesize what would occur if Suharto is ousted. I am not saying that DGIV will not be the next telecom giant. Though I doubt it will with the Merger Mania on wallstreet. You have all made compelling cases. I perhaps will take a long position in this security once I feel the economic crisis is over. Just remember this is not a microeconomic condition. If Indonesia doesn't recover it will have huge Marcoeconomic penalties. Thus hampering the global markets as it did last year. You people remember watching your precious Intel dropping from 102 to the high sixties. Just think what would happen to a stock this small. Those are my reasons for having a pessimistic outlook for this stock. They are my opinions. I am not trying to scare you people I just wanted your input on the topic. Good Day all. If you would like to debate this privately you may also email me at UpNwDwnLtr@aol.com Wish you all luck.