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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ian@SI who wrote (5295)	5/5/1998 10:21:00 PM
From: MikeM54321	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

Interesting comments from the king of networking, John Chambers. It's just amazing how many different opinions there are of the SEA situation. My opinion(guess) is that the recent upgrades of semi-equipment stocks are so pre-mature it probably won't run up the stocks very far. >>SAN JOSE, Calif., May 5 (Reuters) - Cisco Systems Inc. said on Tuesday it expected its business in Asia to get worse in coming months before it gets better because of the region's economic woes. "During two visits to Japan this quarter, in my perspective, Japan's business community was the most pessimistic I have seen in 15 years of travel to that country," John Chambers, Cisco chief executive, said in a conference call after the vendor of computer networking gear announced its third-quarter earnings. Chambers said other areas in Asia also remained "very challenging." Japan may get a temporary boost, however, from that country's economic stimulus package, he said.<< MikeM(From Florida)

To: Ian@SI who wrote (5295)	5/6/1998 1:39:00 AM
From: shane forbes	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

Bingo! That's exactly why I am not bullish on the industry n/t. AMAT's admission of "scrambling" suggests just how severe this is going to be. In talking to some industry-in-the-know people in the chip industry over the last couple of days their take is that Asia's effects on the semi-equips are not yet fully apparent and things will get worse before they get better. This has been exactly my take since Jan-Feb when I began to see the Koreans say no mas, Japan going into a serious oops and the PC industry, which has been bludgeoned by evaporating profis, sucking wind. However shorter term I still feel, as mentioned before, that much of the price support for the semi-equips is based on a whim and a prayer. Though I doubt 0% for 1999 (just because it seems so draconian), who knows - stranger things have happened before. Though, longer term all should be well, n/t the blood-letting in this industry continues to be staunched by some expectations that I think are quite unrealistic at this point. When those expecatations turn into reality (and dark reality) then the blood will start flowing, then the volume (after a few months) will dry in the stocks, and then will be the time to katie-bar-the-door dump 50% of one's assets into the sector. But I might be wrong and may very well be left at the station dangling my pot of dimes, quarters, nickels and pennies watching while you guys zip away into the distance.... Hopefully not... My rough guess at this point is that summer will be abysmal for the industry and if I'm lucky some of the wind will be knocked out of these high expectations by July-August and the prices will be down to ridiculous levels and everyone will be talking about the industry coming to an end and we'll see headlines promoting the same etc etc. (actually it might happen much later - but the July-August time frame is a reasonable guess for the initial fear thing to start.). Shane. (thanks for the articles)