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Technology Stocks : Concurrent Computer (CCUR) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Goodboy who wrote (3665)5/6/1998 12:04:00 AM
From: James M. Bash  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 21143
 
Goodboy, thanks for the posts. A few questions about the
competition:

1. You mention Diva might be a low risk way for smaller cable
companies to get into VOD, because of cost and revenue sharing.
This sounds like a potential strength. Ken mentioned however
their downfall was lack of scalability - which seems a weakness
given cable companies will be scaling from zero deployment to
full deployment as customer acceptance and demand increases
over time. Also their website talks about their "inexpensive
set-top box" - which seems a strength in terms of cost, but a
weakness in terms of simple single-purposeness. What's your
take on these points?

2. SEAC is a Wintel-based architecture. This might be nice for
installations requiring a small number of streams, but (as Wintel
has never scaled well) can they even get anywhere near the
number of streams required by these cable companies? Their
server can deliver up to "an aggregate of 160 Mbs," which
(max 50 MPEG-2 streams) seems like it puts them completely
on the sidelines for anything serious.

3. Prasara's standalone ITV release yesterday mentioned CCUR's
MediaHawk and Oracle's Video Server. We haven't heard too
much about the latter lately, and they aren't at the show.
Are they even still a player at any level from what you hear?

Thanks much for your thoughts.



To: Goodboy who wrote (3665)5/6/1998 12:35:00 AM
From: jeffbas  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 21143
 
Why wouldn't the Diva approach appeal to everyone, of all sizes, until there is some real world data demonstrating the expected usage and return from VOD. My experience as an actuary has indicated that people either tend to imprudently disregard low probability events (like a stock market plunge) or overly focus on them (as in nuclear power plants exploding). I will bet that Diva underprices the risk of poor VOD response in its price structure, at least until actual data emerge. This would tend to suggest that for similar core technical competence of their products, Diva's would possibly by the better buy because of the lack of upfront payment and the assumption of the poor demand risk at a probably inadequate price.

Does anyone (Ken?) have an idea if the two products have similar technical competencies at a similar price?

As to the stock price, I posted the following paragraph on Yahoo last nite:

IF there are no more announcements of substance from the show, I think there may be a short term pullback as the excitement in advance of the show wears off - especially if the general market corrects a bit.

I will go further. I have privately stated quite a while ago that I
thought an increase in margin requirements (today's market rumor) was coming. This makes a lot of sense as it cools the market without killing the real economy
as interest rate hikes would - which the Fed would probably be reluctant to do because of Asia and Japan. I am guessing that because of Asia the Fed will tolerate quite a strong domestic economy.

On the other hand, I stick with the new drug, biotech company, FDA delay thesis I have mentioned previously - that CCUR is seen to have something of value that will carry a good market cap even without
current contracts, so long as the VOD industry and CCUR continue to
make progress.

Therefore, my scenario would be that a market selloff on increased margin requirements might carry CCUR below support at 3 1/2-3/4,
shake out all the weak hands, and then start a new advance.