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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Alias Shrugged who wrote (8433)5/6/1998 12:02:00 AM
From: clochard  Respond to of 18691
 
As the bubble gets bigger, more money than before is needed to make it expand further. When it reaches a stable size, profit taking will cause inflation to rise, which will cause the fed to raise rates, causeing the market to drop.



To: Alias Shrugged who wrote (8433)5/6/1998 12:17:00 AM
From: Oeconomicus  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 18691
 
Mike, good points. I neglected to offer reasons for the beginning of a decline, focusing only on how 401-k investors' attitudes might change in the event of a decline.

Higher margin requirements could contribute. A selling climax in the larger Asian markets might draw some cash back (bargain hunting, margin calls, liquidity crisis, whatever). There might even be a few money managers out there brave enough to hold cash. Remember, even if 401-k participants keep putting money into stock funds a little longer, the amount of the portfolio held in cash is still somewhat discretionary. We are at 4.7% now.

Bob

PS: "Vaporized" is another possibility. We sometimes forget that stocks are priced at the margin. They can be "repriced" overnight (see Cendant) and POOF!, wealth evaporates. A relative few shares change hands at lower prices and suddenly everyone is poorer.



To: Alias Shrugged who wrote (8433)5/11/1998 11:47:00 AM
From: Marty Rubin  Respond to of 18691
 
Mike,
Thank you, too, for your reply. Here's one on ENMD (?) from the same mag. (BW 05.18.98) pg. #44. Nice day, Marty
------------------------------------------------------------------
COMMENTARY: OF MICE, MEN, AND
CANCER CURES

This is a cautionary tale about the confusion that can erupt when you mix a powerful
newspaper, desperately ill cancer victims, hungry investors looking for the next
blockbuster drug, and the word ''cure.''

Last November, Judah Folkman and Michael S. O'Reilly--doctors at Boston
Children's Hospital--reported in the science journal Nature that they had discovered
two human proteins, called angiostatin and endosta-tin, that eradicated all signs of
cancer in mice. The proteins were isolated from the urine of mice that had been given
human cancers. The Nature report generated a buzz in the oncology community
because it described a treatment that appeared to short-circuit the method by which
tumors grow and spread throughout the body.

Since then, EntreMed Inc., a tiny biotech company in Rockville, Md., has been
quietly working on a manufacturing process that would create enough of the two
proteins to conduct human trials, which they hope to start in a year or two. Many
news outlets ran stories about Folkman and O'Reilly's work, including Newsday,
CNN, the Associated Press, Consumers Digest, BUSINESS WEEK--and The New
York Times. The research has also been discussed at a handful of cancer meetings,
the most recent a New York Academy of Sciences symposium on Apr. 28, to which
the press was invited.

On the following Sunday, May 3, The New York Times revisited Folkman's discovery.
But this time, they gave it the star treatment. The newspaper published a front-page
story on angiostatin and endostatin, quoting Nobel laureate James D. Watson, a
co-discoverer of DNA, saying that ''Judah [Folkman] is going to cure cancer in two
years.''

The story, coming after a week of stock-market frenzy over Pfizer Inc.'s impotence
blockbuster Viagra, caused a worldwide sensation. On Monday morning, EntreMed's
stock shot up from $12.06 a share to a mind-boggling $85 before closing at $51.81
on May 4. EntreMed's phones were ringing off the hook, and cancer centers around
the country were inundated with calls from patients desperate for the new ''life-saving''
drugs.

The only problem: There are no drugs. There may never be any drugs. So far, these
proteins have only cured cancer in mice. And it's a long way from success with mice
to a cure for humans, cautions Dr. James M. Pluda, senior clinical investigator of the
National Cancer Institute's investigational drug branch: ''The field of oncology is
littered with the bodies of agents that were the next magic bullet.''

''TAKE-HOME MESSAGE.'' To their credit, EntreMed and Folkman started putting
that same message out within a day of the Times story, trying hard to end
speculation that they had discovered a cancer cure. ''We're very cautious about that
four-letter word,'' EntreMed Chief Executive Officer John W. Holaday said over and
over, and the stock dropped to 31 1/8 by May 6. But his cautionary message was
still difficult to hear over the public's clamor for the new miracle drug. ''All of a
sudden, you pick up the newspaper and see a Nobel laureate saying there's a cure
for cancer on the front page,'' says Lehman Brothers Inc. analyst C. Anthony Butler.
''That was the take-home message.''

The message arrived when the public and Wall Street were exquisitely tuned to hints
of the next wonder drug. Pfizer's stock has climbed 50% since early this year on
expectations of billion-dollar sales for Viagra. In April, the stocks of Zeneca Group
PLC and Eli Lilly & Co. scored on news that their designer estrogen drugs,
Tamoxifen and Evista, can prevent breast cancer.

But those drugs are already on the market, after numerous clinical trials. Angiostatin
and endostatin, like so many promising lab discoveries before them, may never even
reach human trials. ''A lot of new investors don't have a very sophisticated
understanding of the pitfalls involved in creating new drugs, especially cancer
treatments,'' laments Volpe Brown Whelan analyst David M. Steinberg.

Reporters, analysts, and especially Nobel scientists must be far more careful about
overhyping so-called cancer cures--particularly ones that are still more theory than
reality. Granted, The New York Times published a story a day after its Sunday
bombshell cautioning that it will be years, if ever, before the EntreMed treatments are
commercially available. But that second-day hand-wringing is cold comfort for the
millions of cancer victims whose hopes were raised by a ''miracle cure'' that might
never materialize.

By Catherine Arnst