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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Glenn D. Rudolph who wrote (4028)	5/6/1998 9:02:00 AM
From: Jan Crawley	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

Morning Glenn, Prudential downgrades AOL this morning. Aol reports earnings after the bell today w/ earning expectation of 12 cents. Very interesting? Jan

To: Glenn D. Rudolph who wrote (4028)	5/6/1998 9:32:00 AM
From: Candle stick	Respond to of 164684

This post if from the yahoo AMZN thread and I thought was interesting: messages.yahoo.com@m2.yahoo.com When evaluating the prospects for Amazon (and other e-commerce companies), many analysts and reporters seem to be treating "customers" as if they were "subscribers" - strong customer growth at Amazon is often compared to the rapid subscriber growth that has made AOL successful. I think this is a little like comparing apples and oranges. Why? Once enrolled, a subscriber is billed on a repeating cycle, must take some action to terminate a subscription, and still produces revenue even if the service is not used. In contrast, the relationship with a customer only exists for the duration of each transaction; a customer may passively terminate the relationship by simply choosing not to buy again (or to purchase the product from a competitor), and customers only produce revenue if, and when, they decide to buy again. Having a large number of "registered" customers does not any kind of guarantee of future revenue, and is not nearly as compelling as having a large number of "subscribers". (I'm still waiting for an announcement of the Amazon book-of-the-month club!) This focus on customers (as subscribers?) is evident in the following excerpts from a couple of Dow Jones stories issued today: "Some observers said the deal exemplified the current craze in the junk bond market for the new wave of internet deals. One hedge fund portfolio manager with a short position in the company's stock pointed to the fact that rating agency Moody's Investors Service rated the notes a "highly speculative Caa2, yet investors were willing to lend this company money.' Comparing the yield to general market levels, he added: 'In fact the public is willing to pay a premium for the risk.' However, others pointed to the immense potential of the four-year-old company, which by the end of the first quarter this year had sold books to 2.3 million customers. That cumulative total is a 50% increase from last year. Although Amazon.com, like most Internet companies, is a money-loser, its revenue and roster of customers are growing faster than sunflowers." --- "The same sense that the stock [AMZN] represents a sure bet on the future has helped propel America Online Inc. (AOL) of Dulles, Va., which has more than 12 million subscribers and is profitable, to a market capitalization of $20 billion." -dances