Best of luck with your mission. As I see it:
PROS-
1-FDA approval for the device, which is obviously crucial. The device works.
2-Demand for non-invasive monitoring. The specific size of the market has been the subject of "debate" on the other thread. These numbers have been theoretically based on historical levels of bili testing. As I see, the wild card is the level of increased testing that could result out of the ability to do it non invasively. IMO, a parent, nurse, or physician is inclined to believe the physician's eyeball when the only alternative is a heel prick. With the availability of a non invasive alternative, I believe its likely we'll see testing numbers above historical levels.
3-The Company has assembled an impressive array of physicians, investment bankers, auditors, etc. to assist in the negotiations with potential distribution partners. The presence of the pre-emminent physicians in neo natal and pediatric care gives the argument in favor of increased demand a certain degree of credence. The bankers have the ability to bring large multinational players to the table, and one has to believe they were instrumental in the selection of BDO Seidman as the new auditors. If they have been as successful at bringing in potential partners, as the Company has insinuated, then the rumored deal could well be imminent. Concerning the auditors, it should be noted that Wiss and Co., the former auditors, issued a "clean" bill of health in their last report.
4-Anyone who has called the Company(my call was about 3 weeks ago), has been assured that everything is moving along fine, there are multiple suitors, and there are still a few details to work out. The Company is insisting on a 50-50 partnership deal, with the Company responsible for manufacturing, and the partner marketing and distribution.
5-It is important, when taking number 4 above into consideration, to determine for ones self the Company's credibility in statements made to shareholders. To the best of my knowledge, they have delivered, to date, everything as previously described, with the obvious exception of a distribution partner.
6-There are other potential applications for CCSI's technology, with clinical dermatological applications now beginning at Mt. Sinai. The Company has said that it will seek to maintain rights to other applications during their negotiations with bili partners.
CONS
1-There is still no distribution partner, therefore no earnings model. I believe the current stock price is based on earnings capabilities which fall somewhere in between a 3-5% royalty, and the 50-50 deal the Company says is imminent. How close to either is largely dependent on the true demand for the device.
2-There is a competitive product(SPRX) in development, and it is currently being marketed overseas. It does not have FDA approval, and has yet to be shown to work.
It should be clear that I am long CCSI. I believe that, with professional marketing aimed at the peace of mind of both parents and health care professionals, that CCSI's device will replace the physicians eyeball as a low cost, more effective non invasive monitoring tool.
I also believe that the Company is on the level. This is my personal opinion, which has evolved out of a phone conversation with the CEO, a visit to the office in New York, discussions with health care professionals who are familiar with taking blood from infants, (and the adult's associated psychological trauma), and discussions with other investors who have done their own research.
At the moment, traders are in control of this stock. Developmental companies go up on good news, and down on bad, or no news. Traders don't have staying power for "imminent" news, and create high volatility. Investors that believe in CCSI will remain long if they truly believe in its prospects, and will ignore the daily fluctuations. Those that don't will close out their positions and move on, most with sizable gains at current levels. The same goes for the shorts. Those that continue to believe that the bullish sentiment is hype will continue to support their positions with further selling. Those that no longer believe this will cover and move on, albeit largely out of the money.
Right now the traders rule. There will be a distribution agreement, and the specifics of it will determine who is right.
Good luck with keeping this thread civil and informative. |
