To: Kerm Yerman who wrote (5055 ) 5/6/1998 12:46:00 PM From: Mike Smillie Respond to of 24921
Canaccord recommendation this morning on Renata: Renata Resources (RTA : TSE : $1.04 : Issued 119.7M) Recommendation: SPECULATIVE BUY Target price: $1.50 Market Capitalization: $124M Long-term Debt: $31M LTD/CF: 1.3 Net Asset Value/Share: $0.59 P/NAVS: 1.8 Here is a stock we like which keeps getting cheaper by the day. Renata is out of favour these days because its assets consist mainly of crude oil in southeastern Alberta, which came with the acquisition of Intensity Resources just over a year ago. Renata was able to increase production by one third to 8,400 boed by the end of 1997, but low oil prices and wide heavy oil differentials have rendered some of that oil uneconomic to produce, and the Company has elected to shut in 900 bopd. Renata is looking for natural gas to balance its oil production, focussing on deep targets in the Beaverhill Lake, Leduc, Nisku and Wabamun formations of west-central Alberta: Last year Renata was rewarded with a prolific Leduc reef discovery at Lambert, Alberta which tested 53 mmcfd. The pool is believed to have 100 bcf of raw gas in place, although it is 35% sour. Renata has a 30% interest with Talisman Energy. The well is expected to be onstream by the end of May at 5-6 mmcfd net to RTA. Several shallower zones are also prospective for hydrocarbons, so this well may be twinned in the future. Renata has a 35% interest in another deep gas prospect at nearby Smoky, in which Alberta Energy is the operator. This well has been drilling for several months toward a target depth of 5,000 metres. It is now drilling in the Leduc formation and should be completed in a matter of days. The Leduc could contain as much as 200 bcf of gas reserves. Once again, the shallow zones have been logged and appear to be capable of producing oil or gas. A third deep gas prospect is scheduled to be drilled at Bergen, Alberta later this summer. This is another Leduc reef outlier, measuring about four sections in size, located between large producing fields at Strachan and Ricinus. The reservoir could contain 500 bcf of gas reserves, and nearby wells have produced 20-100 mmcfd. At the moment Renata has a 100% interest in the play, but it is in discussions with a major oil and gas producer about sharing the cost and the risk. Lambert and Smoky are not too far from Musreau where Chevron Canada, Newport Petroleum, Gulf Canada Resources and Berkley Petroleum have made a large Wabamun gas discovery. The discovery well is known to be capable of producing 40 mmcfd, and later wells are thought to have tested as much as 140 mmcfd. Renata is contemplating a Wabamun test of its own. In addition to the high impact projects described above, Renata has a suite of low and medium risk prospects, such as light oil at Ingoldsby, Saskatchewan and Knopcik, Alberta which will balance the heavy oil. Any combination of an oil price increase or a narrowing of the heavy oil differential totalling $2.00/bbl would allow the shut-in production at Alderson, Alberta to come back on stream. In the meantime we have reduced our estimates of 1998 production and cash flow. On a gross basis, cash flow will grow to $21M in 1998 from $17M in 1997 because the Company will have the benefit of a full year of Intensity production. On a 'per share' basis, however, cash flow could decline to as little as $0.15, and hence the stock price weakness. Any improvement in oil prices would clearly benefit Renata which remains levered to crude oil, but we like the potential for growing natural gas reserves and production arising from high impact exploration. R. G. G. (Gord) Currie (403) 508-3805 Just passing it on, Mike