To: Big Dog who wrote (21601 ) 5/6/1998 9:09:00 PM From: SJS Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 95453
Hey dog, Briefing.com view (updated 5/5/98): Oil Services returns to 1/1 rating: ______________________ Comment: In our last report on 3/9/98, we noted that the bad news appeared to be priced in and that the risk/reward ratio had turned positive once again. Still high day rates, near 100% utilization and improved operating efficiencies were cited as reasons to remain optimistic on the earnings front, despite the drop in crude and natural gas prices. In addition, we expected the merger activity to underpin the group. As such we upped our short-term rating from 3 to 2, while maintaining our long-term rating of 1. Today, we up the short-term rating once again providing a uniform rating of 1. The basic reasoning for the upgrade is simple. The sector delivered outstanding revenue and earnings growth due to the factors we noted above. Despite an average earnings gain of better than 56%, the group continues to trade at a sizable discount to the general market. As fears over the Asian contagion subside and investors focus back on the core fundamentals, we expect the sector to benefit from an asset rotation. Other reasons to be bullish on the group's prospects include: 1) Stabilization of crude prices in the $15-$16 range. 2) Surprising strength in US and European economies. 3) OPEC's decision to cut back quotas by 10%, and speculation that further reductions could be forthcoming. 4) Muted impact on supply from Iraqi production. 5) Firm pricing conditions within industry despite weak crude prices. On balance, major oil companies have not reduced exploration budgets, confirming Briefing position that as long as crude didn't stay below the $15 bbl area for a sustained period, exploration budgets would remain intact. Stocks: Baker Hughes (BHI), Camco (CAM), Cliffs Drilling (CDG), R&B Falcon (FLC), Global Marine (GLM), Halliburton (HAL), McDermott International (MDR), Schlumberger (SLB), Smith International (SII), Tidewater (TDW), Transocean Offshore (RIG) and Unifab (UFAB).