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Non-Tech : Cendant Corporation (NYSE:CD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Wowzer who wrote (515)5/7/1998 12:35:00 AM
From: VALUESPEC  Respond to of 3627
 
Rory, thanks for your kind words. It is getting tough here !

I am generally a trader, but I am willing to hold for extended periods a stock which I believe is way underpriced and is likely to increase in price in the foreseeable future. I will be right for buying back as fast as I did if the prices doesn't go lower. Otherwise, I could have bought it back cheaper (I never intended to stay out of CD, but I don't like holding a large percent of my portfolio, with margin, on a falling stock).

VALUESPEC
valuespec.com




To: Wowzer who wrote (515)5/7/1998 12:58:00 AM
From: VALUESPEC  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 3627
 
Following is a link to a transcript I have started of the recent conference call:

valuespec.com

In particular, you might want to read the following which I've copied for your convenience (transcript by VALUESPEC):

<<During the first quarter, most of our businesses set records. While we are pleased to exceed consensus by one penny, this does not do justice to the performances of our businesses and their managers.

Excluding certain former CUC businesses where we are not presenting comparative results, first quarter results were extraordinarily strong. Revenues in these businesses grew by thirty five (35) percent, EBITDA increased 75%, and net income rose one hundred eight percent (108). These businesses represent eighty two (82) percent of
Cendant's net income. And the results reflect virtually all internal growth as there were no material acquisitions in these segments. Each segment generated healthy, organic growth, each was run with stringent financial controls and accounting procedures, and
each unit's management following a well defined blueprint for future growth.

This quarter's results point out certain very important misperceptions that we'd like to address. The first is that our growth is dependent upon acquisitions. Particularly by using high multiple stock to acquire lower multiple businesses. This is just not true [said with emphasis]. For example, if you look at the comparative travel and real estate results that we disclosed, the increases represent more than 97% organic growth, and while 149% increases in net income are not sustainable over the long term, it does demonstrate the incredibly powerful operating leverage of our business model.

The second and more important misperception is that the potential accounting irregularities we announced reflect a company meltdown. This is also just not true. It did result in a stock meltdown; However, when we re-state first quarter 1997, our guess is that first quarter 1998's EPS will be up between 50 and 60 percent year to year. We're not aware of any non-tech company of our size with this rate of growth.

The 1998 first quarter results we've announced today were compiled in accordance with what we believe is appropriate accounting and reflect the elimination of any potential accounting irregularities we have identified for investigation. Any future revisions to first quarter 1998, up or down, would be mechanical and, we expect, quite immaterial. >>

I hope you find these words as encouraging as I do. You can find this information, and more at my website. Look at the CD Stock Library.

VALUESPEC
valuespec.com



To: Wowzer who wrote (515)5/7/1998 1:47:00 AM
From: Fred Fraschetti  Respond to of 3627
 
If I have a big position in a stock and it starts to drop and the general market is showing weakness...its better to sell and
be decisive. You can always buy back if you feel you made
the wrong decision. I think V.S. is saying I was wrong and its
better to be in this stock.... thats ok....



To: Wowzer who wrote (515)5/7/1998 7:05:00 PM
From: Stevie  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 3627
 
Rory...The audit being pushed back was a concern of mine as well..
until I listened to the conferance call.
From what I could determine in the call..Henry made a statement in response to an analysts question that they were wrong in assuming it was going to be done this month.
Henry Stated the companies position has always been that it would be 60 to 90 days. Which would put it into July.
He told the analyst that his information was incorrect that it would be sooner.
Good luck to you
Stevie