To: Eric Yang who wrote (13078 ) 5/7/1998 5:48:00 PM From: Ariosto Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 213177
Hi Eric, As usual, you go direct to the point. Thanks for your postings and for your most valuable Macevolution site. By the way, I don't want to flood the thread with this "wallstreetness" BS, but it may be of interest. So here it goes: Apple Announces New Laptops and a New Consumer Product 05/07/98 Apple Computer (AAPL $30.19,3-S,Tgt $25.00) SUMMARY:--Apple Computer--PCs *Apple announced an entirely new line of laptops based on the G3 microprocessor yesterday at a well attended media event in Cupertino. The new line features a redesigned chassis and a choice of screen sizes. Prices appear to be quite aggressive. *Apple also made its debut in the value-line category (sub-$1,500) with the introduction of the iMac, a new all-in-one consumer desktop based on the G3 microprocessor. The system starts at $1,299. *The G3 processor is allowing Apple to offer comparable, in some cases better, price-performance than Wintel vendors for the first time ever. *However, we maintain our Neutral rating on the shares based on product transition issues; updating the entire laptop line at once could cause older laptop inventory in the channel to languish. 05/07/98 Apple Computer (AAPL $30.19,3-S,Tgt $25.00) FUNDAMENTALS:--------------------------------------------------------- Current Rank........:3-S Price 05/07/98 14:20:$30.19 Prior Rank..........: Target Price........:$25.00 P/E 09/98...........:19.2X 52 Wk Price Range...:30.31 12.93 P/E 09/99...........:18.6X Proj. 5yr EPS Grth..:N/A% Return on Equity 97.:N/A% BookValue...........:$10.88 LT Debt-to-Capital..:N/A% Dividend............:$N/A Revenue 1998........:$6193.00 mil Yield...............:N/A% Shares Outstanding..:132.76 mil Convertible.........:Yes Mkt. Capitalization.:$4008.02 mil Hedge Clause(s).....:# Comments............: 05/07/98 Apple Computer (AAPL $30.19,3-S,Tgt $25.00) OPINION:-------------------------------------------------------------- The milestone event announced by Apple last took place yesterday in Curpertino. At the event, Steve Jobs explained Apple's streamlined product strategy and introduced an entirely new line of laptop computers and a new consumer desktop. The core of Job's message was that Apple's product line has become too broad and convoluted over the past several years. In search of greater simplicity, Apple has decided to offer just four different product categories (in addition to servers): professional and consumer laptops and professional and consumer desktops. Apple's very successful Power Mac G3 series constitutes the professional desktop. A totally redesigned line of aggressively priced laptops introduced yesterday will constitute Apple's professional laptop offering. The new iMac, which was also introduced yesterday, will be Apple's consumer offering, and finally, a new consumer laptop is slated for release sometime in 1999. Apple's new laptop, the PowerBook G3, features a redesigned chassis and the new G3 microprocessor. Other new features include a choice of screen size (12", 13" or 14") and hot-swappable bays for extra batteries or storage devices. The laptops will replace all models currently being produced by Apple. Price points on the new PowerBook line are relatively aggressive. A PowerBook G3 with a 233 MHz G3 processor, 32MB of memory, a 2 GB hard drive and a 12" display starts at $2,300. This is a lower price than most notebooks based on Intel's PII 233 MHz chip, and according to benchmark results cited by Apple, the PowerBook offers significantly better performance than a Pentium II with an otherwise equal configuration. We like the new line of PowerBooks, but are concerned that a refresh across Apple's entire product line, especially at aggressive price points, may cause a hiccup in Apple's financial results if customers quickly cease to buy existing inventories of older models. This is the perennial problem for PC vendors, but the new PowerBooks are different in enough respects as to potentially make older PowerBooks obsolete, especially with introductory prices which are lower in some cases than current prices on older models. Apple's new consumer product, the iMac, is the embodiment of the company's unorthodox spirit. Once again, the price performance of the system is impressive when compared with Wintel offerings of similar price, and the design is innovative. However, given the fact that the system is based on the same processor as Apple's more expensive Power Mac G3, we believe that a portion of iMac sales may represent cannibalization from more expensive Power Mac systems. We also think that basing the iMac design on a 17"monitor rather than a 15" one would have made for a more competitive product. We maintain our Neutral rating on the shares with a price target of $25. In yesterday's announcement, we still do not perceive a strategy which will allow Apple to begin expanding beyond its installed base and growing revenue again in fiscal 1999. The next major event for Apple will be the Worldwide Developers Conference (WDC) on May 11. We believe that the WDC is more likely to yield the type of change in Apple's strategy which would prompt a reevaluation of our Neutral rating. In particular, we will be looking for evidence of a continued commitment by Apple to Rhapsody, or improvements in Mac OS, which might yield a more robust operating system appropriate for the server market. We will also be attempting to gauge at the conference the current level of commitment from software developers and will be soliciting their views on Apple's recent strategic initiatives.