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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (5328)	5/7/1998 2:11:00 PM
From: MikeM54321	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

From Yahoo News: >>Markets elsewhere in the region were also spooked by fears of increased violence in Indonesia, which straddles international sea and air routes and has vast market potential. Stock markets in Singapore, Malaysia and Taiwan all fell on concerns about the impact of a social explosion in Indonesia.<< For those who think Indonesia, Singapore, Malaysia, Taiwan, and Others have, "Nothing to do with semiconductor equipment sales," then I'm not about to defend the posts concerning the fundamental economics of the Asian Tigers and how they relate to semiconductor and semiconductor equipment sales. I really find the links and commentaries found on this thread to be directly related to FORECASTING semiconductor trends way AHEAD of the analysts. I hope others keep posting their links and comments. IMHO only. MikeM(From Florida)

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (5328)	5/8/1998 4:33:00 AM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

re: What does Indonesia have to do with semiconductors or the semi-equips???? This is exactly what I was saying 6 months ago, and I was wrong. Political and economic instability in Indonesia will have an effect on AMAT's stock price. The problem is that liquidity/solvency/political stability problems have a nasty habit of spreading. Remember how the problems spread from Thailand to Malaysia/Indonesia to Japan/Korea, and countries everywhere (China, Russia, Brazil) were affected and had to respond to defend their currencies and banking systems? Once one debtor defaults, lenders everywhere get worried. Most fabs are built with borrowed money. Few companies are in the position of Intel, who never needs to go to the capital markets. Other than raising the general sphincter tone of bankers everywhere, blood in Indonesia's streets will have a more specific effect. The Japanese banking sector is teetering on the edge of insolvency. They hold a lot of Indonesian loans, whose default could be the last straw that breaks Japan's back. And let's not forget about the IMF. If Indonesia collapses into chaos, in spite of all the money channelled from taxpayers in rich countries through the IMF to dissolute nations like Indonesia, then the IMF will be discredited. Noone will be willing to pay for the next bailout, which means confidence would plummet. In such an environment, we would see a lot more fab pushouts and cancellations.