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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: MythMan who wrote (18118)	5/7/1998 3:42:00 PM
From: bobby beara	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 94695

Doesn't matter whats in the report, just that the report is out. We go up just because we are tremendously oversold. The bulls are chomping at the bit to tackle the all time high short interest in the market right now. And since it's oversold they got mucho firepower - NASA supplied! blowout bottom here we come. bwdik - BK is a myth -ggg- Come on, I told all of you that we had to go long at the peak. It was written in our bear contracts. Let's get with it. Need to get this thing overwith, ARIK is tired of waiting -g- bobby b

To: MythMan who wrote (18118)	5/7/1998 11:18:00 PM
From: Greg Jung	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Pete, good news has been coming every day. AG didn't say "irrational" today. Still stocks drop. I don't think there is any real significance to be given to the report. Thats just the superbulls trying to rebuild a wall of worry. But they use sand without cement, nobody cares - they just want a piece of the pie. The economy is strong, earnings are at peak or plateau, inflation is low and interest rates are low and its all fine but stocks are just plainly too high. Every day we get an article in Washington Post Business section or front page: How Japan debt is shouldered by third parties, why PEs should be LOWer during good economic times. All sorts of clues that the journalists will be able to point back and say, "Why wasn't it obvious?". BTW if you want a guru, today I heard Donald Trump call the stock market "scary". If he's scared, why aren't we? In order to get our wall of worry we will need a truly scary time in the market, something people can latch onto. Erasing 1998 gains might do it, might not. May is seasonally a good month, they say. 14/15. However they also say February is a dog but look what happened then. They also say the first day of the month is good, look where it ended up on May 1. Well ok the first week of the month. Whoops. October 1987, October 1997 I believe were both mondays following a triple witching/options expiry friday which followed a mildly (5%) down week. I wasn't knowledgeable enough to know about options in 1987 so somebody please check. I don't have reasons for stocks to crash but I can't make up reasons for them not to. Inflows are good but cash levels are low. And like James says, the funds are trapped in the small caps. Last October it was dropped in price, the buying stopped even though the selling was slow. Look at Viasoft, 92% institutional owned, it fell slowly by 50% then a one-day 50% on a well announced effect. Now its just a reasonably valued software concern. Look at Adaptec, gets cut 50% in one day because they might not get sequentially increasing earnings. Another 90% institutional effect. Greg