To: IPOJunkie who wrote (4799 ) 5/7/1998 6:04:00 PM From: Howard Williams Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 14347
In plain English.....This isn't all-inclusive but hope it helps. SASOL and RNTK F-T units are the only ones that can work the "junk" that is not nice, sweet natural gas. SASOL is a very big company and so far it appears they'll only "partner" their iron catalyst stuff. They have the bucks and the background but so far they insist on being "in on" the hardware fab/install/operate. They get revenues from the F-T products...not just royalties. RNTK is a microcap and desires to license their iron catalyst stuff to others.....and just get license fees and royalties. They are not (yet) in a position to partner. Think about it....one gasifier/F-T installation is probably worth close to their (current) market cap! Lest this sounds like a downer....it's just the opposite. The potential revenue flow to them just from royalties could be a nice amount per share. On Yahoo, cougarjcm speculated on some numbers. One place he erred was in the expenses associated with revenues to RNTK, guessing at 60% expenses, 40% profit. Not so. In a deal of the type we're hoping will transpire with TX, RNTK's year-to-year expenses will be virtually nothing. TX (or whomever) would do the fab and sales of gasifier/F-T combos. It is reasonable to assume that RNTK would have to share production royalties with the gasifier/F-T unit supplier. I, for one, hope the deal with TX goes through since TX is the world's leading gasifier company. I can't think of a better company for RNTK to license their processes to. Now, looking past the gasifier/F-T stuff, there remain the natural gas GTL opportunities in competition with the cobalt catalyst outfits. I haven't seen anything that says RNTK's approach isn't competitive. The whole GTL field is going to blossom nicely in coming years and RNTK should be able to garner a respectable share of the business. But working the heavy/dirty stuff is the near-term brass ring. European refineries are awash in tens of millions of metric tons per year of this stuff. Venezuela has vast reserves of heavy crude that's a natural for gasifying/F-Ting. And there's high sulfur coal fields in the eastern U.S. And several hundred refineries worldwide are cranking out refinery bottoms (more every year as crude deteriorates too). All told, the world has 6.3 trillion barrels of heavy crude and bitumen (tar) reserves. Of those, maybe 350 billion are recoverable and can feed gasifier/F-T units.....but ONLY if they use IRON CATALYSTS. SASOL's and RNTK's playing field......and SASOL isn't licensing. RNTK is a microcap that's a pure GTL play and they have patents. Have a good evening everyone. H.W.