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To: IPOJunkie who wrote (4799)5/7/1998 4:11:00 PM
From: eric deaver  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 14347
 
This from Petrochemicals for the Non-technical Person re: Olefins and Paraffins (RNTK's Iron Cat makes Olefins):

The double bond difference between olefins and paraffins is the essence of the difference between petrochemicals and petroleum: the former depends much more on the chemical reactivity of the double-bonded molecules. While Paraffins can be manipulated in refineries by separation or reshaping, olefins in a petrochemical plant are usually reacted with another kind of atom or compound such as chlorine, oxygen, water, ammonia, or even with more of themselves. The result is more complicated compounds that are useful in an increasing number of chemical applications.

FWIW, I interpret this to mean that the product of the iron based catalyst has a much greater value to the petrochemical/petroleum industry than does the cobalt based catalyst.

This is part of the product side of the equation. Others may wish to interpret the feedstock side. I'm tired of typing :)

Eric



To: IPOJunkie who wrote (4799)5/7/1998 6:04:00 PM
From: Howard Williams  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 14347
 
In plain English.....This isn't all-inclusive but hope it helps.

SASOL and RNTK F-T units are the only ones that can work the "junk" that is not nice, sweet natural gas.

SASOL is a very big company and so far it appears they'll only "partner" their iron catalyst stuff. They have the bucks and the background but so far they insist on being "in on" the hardware fab/install/operate. They get revenues from the F-T products...not just royalties.

RNTK is a microcap and desires to license their iron catalyst stuff to others.....and just get license fees and royalties. They are not (yet) in a position to partner. Think about it....one gasifier/F-T installation is probably worth close to their (current) market cap!

Lest this sounds like a downer....it's just the opposite. The potential revenue flow to them just from royalties could be a nice amount per share. On Yahoo, cougarjcm speculated on some numbers. One place he erred was in the expenses associated with revenues to RNTK, guessing at 60% expenses, 40% profit. Not so. In a deal of the type we're hoping will transpire with TX, RNTK's year-to-year expenses will be virtually nothing. TX (or whomever) would do the fab and sales of gasifier/F-T combos. It is reasonable to assume that RNTK would have to share production royalties with the gasifier/F-T unit supplier. I, for one, hope the deal with TX goes through since TX is the world's leading gasifier company. I can't think of a better company for RNTK to license their processes to.

Now, looking past the gasifier/F-T stuff, there remain the natural gas GTL opportunities in competition with the cobalt catalyst outfits. I haven't seen anything that says RNTK's approach isn't competitive. The whole GTL field is going to blossom nicely in coming years and RNTK should be able to garner a respectable share of the business.

But working the heavy/dirty stuff is the near-term brass ring. European refineries are awash in tens of millions of metric tons per year of this stuff. Venezuela has vast reserves of heavy crude that's a natural for gasifying/F-Ting. And there's high sulfur coal fields in the eastern U.S. And several hundred refineries worldwide are cranking out refinery bottoms (more every year as crude deteriorates too). All told, the world has 6.3 trillion barrels of heavy crude and bitumen (tar) reserves. Of those, maybe 350 billion are recoverable and can feed gasifier/F-T units.....but ONLY if they use IRON CATALYSTS. SASOL's and RNTK's playing field......and SASOL isn't licensing.

RNTK is a microcap that's a pure GTL play and they have patents.

Have a good evening everyone.
H.W.



To: IPOJunkie who wrote (4799)5/9/1998 12:01:00 PM
From: hoopsville  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 14347
 
RS, you can't conclude from the website whether one process
has an economic advantage over another or even if any process
is operationally or economically feasible. Seems like the iron
catalyst is suitable over a much wider range of feedstocks (which
is what Texaco would be interested in) wherein the cobalt catalyst
is more easily poisoned and needs a purer feedstock.
The cobalt catalyst produces a better quality product but the
unstable, olefinic-rich product from the iron catalyst could be
stabilized by simple hydrogen treating. The products from all
the processes would probably be considered low quality and couldn't
be used as gasoline, jet fuel or diesel without further processing.
The economics of the process are greatly dependent on the price
of petroleum products which depends on the price of crude which
can vary greatly. Doubtful that these processes would be competitive
with the products from today's low-priced crudes. But what will
tomorrow's crude price be?
All the above is my opinion only.
Tom