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To: Gabriel008 who wrote (40883)	5/7/1998 4:26:00 PM
From: Eddie Kim	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

Thanks for the link gabriel. Looking at the chart its appears that IBM and HWP stuffed the channel far more than CPQ. Why is then that Compaq is having all the inventory problems?

To: Gabriel008 who wrote (40883)	5/7/1998 4:53:00 PM
From: Patrick E.McDaniel	Respond to of 176387

Gabriel, from this we should hope many Americans are out of work? Nasdaq falls as investors look to Friday jobs data NEW YORK, May 7 (Reuters) - The Nasdaq Composite Index fell more than 20 points Thursday as investors, still fearful of a hike in interest rates, looked forward with uncertainty to Friday's U.S. employment data report, traders said. The index unofficially closed off 21.54 points -- or 1.16 percent -- at 1835.14. Volume was about 720 million shares. Decliners unofficially led advancers 2,636 to 1,769. ''You can feel the fear out there,'' one trader said. ''You can cut it with a knife. I think if (U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan) Greenspan does raise rates, you might even have a rally, just as a sigh of relief. ''Wall Street can deal with what it knows, not with the unknown,'' he added. Among the most-actives, 3Com Corp. (COMS - news) lost 2-9/16 to 32-1/8 after some Wall Street analysts cut their earnings estimates for the company following a meeting with its management. Cisco Systems Inc. (CSCO - news) lost 5/8 to 75-3/8 after a big rise Wednesday. Intel Corp. (INTC - news) fell 3/8 to 81 and Dell Computer Corp. (DELL - news) fell 13/16 to 86-5/8. Microsoft Corp. (MSFT - news) lost 3 to 83-3/8 amid concern that U.S. regulators would file an antitrust suit against the company. :o)

To: Gabriel008 who wrote (40883)	5/7/1998 6:12:00 PM
From: rudedog	Respond to of 176387

This is interesting. On the surface it supports the posts I did on this subject in march. CPQ's inventory problem came because IBM had done a much more aggressive year end stuff and was taking pricing action that was slowing sales out. Aside from that the general shape of the CPQ pattern looks identical to 96, 95, and earlier years - the difference is not how much went in but how much went out. However, I think his curve is low for CPQ across the board. I don't think they have been below 20 days any time in the last year. My info was that days sales was up over 60 at the end of december, and stayed above 40 for that whole period. If CPQ had gotten down to 30 days in february I think they would have been dancing in the streets. Where did Goldberg get his numbers? does he sample the channel? If this chart is right, then CPQ is already nearly home free - their target is 3-4 weeks and they are close to that at the end of the chart. I think this chart is a lot better looking than reality in the channel at the moment.