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Technology Stocks : Siebel Systems (SEBL) - strong buy? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: eRM Solutions who wrote (1502)	5/7/1998 6:54:00 PM
From: still learning	Respond to of 6974

I wouldn't say this is a bearish board! I'd count myself in the minority of skeptics. Maybe it stands out for you because (at least in my experience) SI is marked by mostly positive boards. One reason I enjoy this one is itbrings together some violent clashes of opinions, both sides of which have some valid points (execpt Clam and Shege, who don't know a thing about fiduciary resonsibility, right Melissa ;^} My own views are that SEBL, like any high growth/highly valued company needs much more scrutiny and price-point evaluation to see when and if it is a "buy" It's easy to say "This is a great company in a hot market" -- doesn't say anything about whether it's worhth the current price. When you don't already own a stock you face a different set of issues than those felt by people who already own it. I do not own this stock. I'm looking at it to see when it is at a good buy point. Right now it's close, but will still likely come down some more this Summer IMO.

To: eRM Solutions who wrote (1502)	5/7/1998 7:07:00 PM
From: Clam Clam	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6974

>>IMO the end of the SFA/CIS war is near and Seibel is clearly the victor. I don't know what you are talking about. The SFA/CIS war is only in round 2. SEBL won SFA round 1 and VNTV won Support round 1. Round 2 is to be decided. Its the best marketing company (Siebel) vs. the best integrated product offering (Vantive). It is quite possible that both succeed. >>Once they are effectively dealt with this co. is going to be grooving along at a 150% growth rate per year. 150%? Really. SFA grew 73% last quarter. Service revenues were the driver last quarter but that product overlaps with Scopus's support product. Margins can't help much from here so 150% EPS growth would have to be on 150%+ revenue growth. Given that many of the existing customer seats that have been recognized as revenue up front for Siebel still aren't up and running, growth is going to have to come from new customers. The Motorola win is nice but they have got a lot to go if they want to grow 15-20% this quarter (sequentially). Selling into Scopus's installed base is critical. However, key is pricing on selling SFA seats to existing Scopus customers who already paid $2-3+k and are now supposed to pony up another $3k+ for SEBL SFA functionality. VNTV does it all for $3,500.

To: eRM Solutions who wrote (1502)	5/7/1998 11:23:00 PM
From: Konehead	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6974

>> For such a positive company this [is] such a bearish board. Agree wholeheartedly. IMO Siebel & Co. deserve a great deal of respect for what they've done. Don't know Tom Siebel personally, but do know some of the people that work for Siebel- and they are experienced and smart. >> The end of the SFA/CIS war is near and Siebel is clearly the victor. Disagree wholeheartedly. Siebel is the big kahuna in SFA. Not in support (and not in the near future, either). Vantive is the leader in support. >> Company is going to be grooving along at a 150% growth rate per year. Naw-- the company is too big for that. I would guess 100% this year is attainable. Beyond that, growth rate will start to come down gradually (in my humble opinion). Still, $24 is a fine price for this stock. You'll make $ at this entry point unless the whole market tanks.