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To: Thean who wrote (167)	5/7/1998 7:55:00 PM
From: Lucretius	Respond to of 14427

I mention it because the pattern is not that common and is very reliable, and when it is present it often gives a huge move upon a break of the neckline. I prefer to see it on a weekly for a real top, but the daily chart is good enough for me right now. If a daily chart is showing a stock sitting right on the neckline, that is a forecast of the next few days if you ask me, telling of a prolonged move down coming soon? wouldn't you agree? otherwise you're right, the other S-T indicators are probably better.

To: Thean who wrote (167)	5/7/1998 10:13:00 PM
From: SJS	Respond to of 14427

My option strategy was "cast" 3 weeks ago, and now I'm just waiting for expiration. I wrote calls on GLM, and calls on RON 3 months ago. I wrote calls on 3 or 4 other stocks. I already sold NE at 32, so that's not in the picture. UFAB's an enigma and not optionable. So..... Right now (today) I would get none of the optionable stocks called... Is that good? Yes and no. My strategy tonight (before the Fri morning announcement about jobs) is to continue to carefully watch. There is a very interesting line between downright bearish (so you buy puts) and moderately bearish to neutral (write calls). I think I am in the later camp. I don't know how to call the current cycle very well, but most drillers I see are at the top of the ST cycle, going down in the ST. I am personally looking to write a few selected puts on some stocks like NE or MDCO as they bottom, but the concept of general "collapse" looms large, which would croak me big time by writing puts. My gut feel is that one could do a write at 30 say for NE, with a lower strike buy (25) for collapse protection. I would look to leg into this as the right play if you can stomach the volatility and have a good knack for guessing correctly. I am concerned that the fed is slightly more serious this time. If they change the margin call % from 50 to 60%, all hell is going to break loose. If they raise rates, same scenerio, but not as bad. 50% margin is almost like mom and apple pie, and has been around for 25 years at that level. Lots of Reg T calls... There is too much money chasing stuff. Even with a reasonable jobs number tomorrow, a shot has been fired across the bow. I'm somewhat more cautious now, trying to raise cash where I can. I'll miss more upside for more downside protection. Seems I am not alone in these feelings... Regards,