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Strategies & Market Trends : Shorting stocks: Broken stocks - Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Q. who wrote (1027)	5/8/1998 11:52:00 AM
From: mattie	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2506

Hi John, I always start with fundamental analysis and use technical analysis to back it up. I can give you a summary of my fundamental research, but I am at work and do not have all the numbers available: IBP -slowing demand from asia, increasing labor costs (meat packing is very labor intensive), increasing food safety costs (wittness their recall last week), increasing feed costs. IBP's margins should actually be negative this year. Overall sales are flat, but costs are much higher, so earnings are declining. NSM - taking on Intel. They are losing market share and they have to keep investing in the latest technology. They will not be able to gain against Intel and AMD. Of the 2, I am more confident in IBP as a short. They are both lower today as the market is up ovr 1% - a good sign for the shorts. I also shorted EK this morning. Looming price war and the stock is up 40% this year. Look for a test of the lows. Good Luck!

To: Q. who wrote (1027)	5/8/1998 4:49:00 PM
From: Alan Lee	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2506

HEPH - Not sure if this company has been mentioned on this thread before, but check out this statement from the news release on their latest round of financing. Sounds like there is no limit on the conversion of the preferred stock after the first 7 months. The stock price is around 15 now. The sentiment on the HEPH thread is definitely bearish on this company. << An aggregate of 1,007,538 Common Shares, $4 million principal amount of Convertible Preferred Stock, and Warrants to purchase 963,808 shares of Common Stock at $17.00 per share were issued in the financing. The Convertible Preferred Stock has an initial conversion price of $20.30 for the first seven months, after which it can be adjusted, either up or down, based on the future stock prices of the Company's Common Stock.>>