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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Pseudo Biologist who wrote (5344)	5/8/1998 3:35:00 PM
From: Lighthouse	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

Just to get the conversation rolling: (IMHO and I fully expect others to pick this list apart - that is what it is for) 1) Prime beneficiaries: ETEC and PRIA, KLAC and AMAT. All Gorilla's in their respective fields. 2) DPMI, PLAB - hey you got to have masks! 3) LRCX and NVLS and SVGI and UTEK and KLIC will all benefit just not as much as the others. 4) Good value play but EGLS is competing with two other Japanese companies. With the dollar/yen relationship not exactly helping out, EGLS may win a contract but at lower ASP's. That is a strong headwind. O.K everyone take your shots!!! ;-) Regards,

To: Pseudo Biologist who wrote (5344)	5/8/1998 4:00:00 PM
From: McDuck	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

I pretty much agree with this list (AMAT, NVLS, LRCX, SVGI, KLAC, UTEK, EGLS)with a couple of exceptions: LRCX - Could be left behind in the recovery (whenever that is) EGLS - Might not make it through the rough spots, but if it does, will do well. I think a better approach to all this is who will consolidate (merge, be aquired) with who(m). I think in 5-10 years out the biz model for all semi equipment is to provide, and perhaps lease fab services. AMAT is a couple of acquisitions away from being able to offer "turn-key" fabs. This is a great biz model, and is common in capital intensive industries, like chemicals (fabs are a batch chemical process, right?). Furthermore, fabs will be so expensive and complicated that only the people that design and make the equipment could possibly run them. Also imagine being able to lease a fab.... With this in mind, how does a KLAC-LRCX-NVLS conglomerate stack up against AMAT???? Yours in idle speculation; McDuck